Soaring demand for copper will help drive mergers, BHP CEO says
Demand for copper, a key element in the energy transition, is set to rise by 70% to 100% by 2050, Mike Henry said
Trafigura Group, the world’s largest copper trader and one of the most vocal bulls, expects Chinese copper demand to be weaker for the next few months — potentially providing relief for the market after available exchange stocks fell to the lowest in decades.
Trafigura’s chief economist Saad Rahim made the comments on a call with investment bank Jefferies, according to an analyst note summarizing it.
“Saad expects power constraints and the housing market slowdown to lead to weaker Chinese demand for copper and other metals between now and Feb 2022, which is when Chinese New Year and the Beijing Winter Olympics will take place,” according to the note.
The comments come after Trafigura played a key role in draining copper inventories from the London Metal Exchange in recent months. As available LME stocks fell last month to the lowest since 1974, prices surged and the short-term spreads spiked to the largest backwardation on record, while the LME imposed emergency rules to calm the market.
The trading house has said it withdrew metal from the LME to deliver to end users in Asia and Europe.
Notwithstanding his caution on the short term, Rahim was more optimistic on the prospects for copper and other metals over the course of 2022 and beyond.
“He expects the Chinese property market to begin to recover in 2Q22 and he also expects warmer weather in the spring to lead to more power supply and more economic activity,” Jefferies analysts including Christopher LaFemina wrote in the note. “Saad believes the timing of supply growth in base metals will be an issue, and an inventory restock in China will be needed as inventories have fallen to very low levels for some metals.”
Trafigura, which recently overtook Glencore Plc as the world’s largest copper trader, has emerged as one of the market’s most prominent bulls. Kostas Bintas, Trafigura’s head of copper trading, earlier this year predicted copper would hit all-time highs of $15,000 a ton.
Copper prices have eased since last month, trading on Tuesday at $9,670 a ton. However, spreads remain extremely tight, with contracts for immediate delivery trading far above those for later delivery.
The market’s focus is on the third Wednesday of November next week — the day when monthly liquidity on the LME is concentrated. The spread between November and December contracts last week traded as high as $285 a ton, and on Tuesday traded at $220 a ton.
(By Jack Farchy)
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