Top five contrarian commodity scenarios for 2025
The upcoming year has the potential to be one of the most volatile in recent memory, particularly in commodities, writes Clyde Russell.
The European Union’s Critical Raw Material Act sets out several ambitious goals to enhance the resilience of its critical mineral supply chains.
The Act includes non-binding targets for the EU to build sufficient mining capacity so that mines within the bloc can meet 10% of its critical mineral demand.
Additionally, the Act establishes a goal for 40% of demand to be met by processing within the bloc, and 25% through recycling.
Several months after the Act’s passage in May 2024, this graphic by Visual Capitalist Elements highlights the scale of the challenge the EU aims to overcome.
With the exception of nickel mining, none of the battery minerals deemed strategic by the EU are on track to meet these goals.
Graphite, the largest mineral component used in batteries, is of particular concern. There is no EU-mined supply of manganese ore or coke, the precursor to synthetic graphite.
By 2030, the European Union is expected to supply 16,000 tonnes of flake graphite locally, compared to the 45,000 tonnes it would need to meet the 10% mining target.
The EU is also expected to mine 29,000 tonnes of LCE (lithium carbonate equivalent) compared to the 46,000 tonnes needed to meet the 10% target.
In terms of mineral processing, the bloc is expected to process 25% of its lithium requirements, 76% of nickel, 51% of cobalt, 36% of manganese, and 20% of flake graphite.
The EU is expected to recycle only 22% of its lithium needs, 25% of nickel, 26% of cobalt, and 14% of manganese. Graphite, meanwhile, is not widely recycled on a commercial scale.
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