The future of deep sea mining hinges on a contentious election

The dispute is characteristic of what’s become the most contentious election ever held by the obscure, Kingston, Jamaica-based organization. On one side is Lodge, 64, who says one of his top priorities is finalizing mining regulations that would kickstart a potentially multi-billion-dollar deep sea metals industry.

On the other is Carvalho, 50, who says finishing the regulations may take years more of negotiations to protect the deep sea from the most harmful effects of mining. The next leader of the UN-affiliated ISA will wield significant influence in determining whether companies can begin to exploit the world’s largest known reserve of electric vehicle battery metals. And he or she will have the sole power to negotiate confidential contracts with mining companies.

“This is a turning point,” says Andrew Thaler, a Maryland-based deep sea scientist and consultant who closely follows the ISA. “Whoever is secretary general during this moment will have an enormous role to play, as the only thing that’s really holding up the commercialization of deep sea mining is the finalization of mining regulations.”

Kiribati has plenty to lose or gain in the contest. The Pacific archipelago operates its own mining company, Marawa Research and Exploration Ltd., which holds an ISA contract to explore and potentially mine 75,000 square kilometers of the Pacific seabed.

As of this summer, Marawa’s mining concession is potentially at risk after an ISA inspection of the company found serious failures to comply with its contract, according to documents seen by Bloomberg Green and people familiar with the matter who requested anonymity to discuss sensitive information. The report on the inspection is due to be released later this year.

Kiribati nominated Lodge for a third term after his home country, the UK, declined to do so. (A spokesperson for the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office declined to comment on why.) The nation has stated its support for Lodge is based, in part, on his commitment to finalizing international mining regulations so commercial exploration of cobalt, nickel and other metals in the deep sea can begin. Lodge has aggressively pushed to finish the so-called Mining Code as soon as this year, ahead of the ISA’s official 2025 target is to adopt regulations.

Now, with just days before the Aug. 2 election, the ISA’s dueling pro-mining and conservation-minded factions are ramping up pressure on the candidates. While 19 of the ISA’s 168 member states have sponsored exploration licenses, another 27 have called for a moratorium or a pause on mining until its impacts on the deep sea are better understood.

Canadian-registered The Metals Company (TMC) has mining contracts with three Pacific island nations, including Kiribati. TMC has said it will apply for a mining license after July. Scientists just this month published findings that polymetallic nodules found in one of TMC’s mining areas actually produce oxygen, an extraordinary discovery that two ISA delegates cited Thursday in remarks urging the agency to slow efforts to mine the seabed. The company has challenged the study’s scientific credibility.

Until Brazil announced Carvalho’s candidacy in March, Lodge seemed to be on a glidepath to re-election. For decades, the British attorney has been the public face of the ISA, joining as legal officer in 1996 and rising to deputy secretary-general before being first elected to the top post in 2016.

He ran unopposed in 2020 and has helped oversee the exploration of more than 1.3 million square kilometers (500,000 square miles) of seabed by private and state-backed metals companies.Click and drag to move

Carvalho, a former federal environmental regulator and an official with the UN Environment Programme in Nairobi, is campaigning as his antithesis: the first woman and scientist to potentially lead the ISA. She says her priorities as secretary-general would be transparency and accountability.

She had been considered the underdog. But the different versions of her meeting with Tito under the soaring ceiling of the Rem Koolhaas-designed UN Delegates Lounge in New York in June has catalyzed her supporters and raised tensions at the ISA.

Carvalho’s version is that Tito offered her a job to drop out of the race, an account corroborated by another person at the meeting Tito requested with Brazil’s UN delegation and to whom the proposal was directed. “The deal was that I would become Michael Lodge’s deputy and then after four years it would be my time to be secretary-general,” she tells Bloomberg Green.

“Never in my career in international civil service have I ever heard of or seen something so explicit and inappropriate.” The New York Times first reported that an offer had been made.

Tito, for his part, denies a quid pro quo. “We like the lady but unfortunately she doesn’t have any experience in seabed mining,” Tito tells Bloomberg Green. “It was a suggestion.” But he says he told Lodge of his plans to ask Carvalho to step aside.

Lodge in a statement denied any involvement in or knowledge of the claims.

Since then, Carvalho has made other accusations against Lodge, alleging in an interview that he inappropriately used his position to campaign in eight countries since March. Her supporters, including Germany and Costa Rica, have asked the ISA for a detailed accounting of travel by top ISA officials in 2023 and 2024; questioned whether the ISA’s leadership had authorization to promote certain individuals, including Lodge’s current chief of staff; and requested information about his office’s spending.

Lodge dismissed the claims in a statement, saying: “Any allegations of financial impropriety, on their face, lack any probative weight and persuasive force.”

The ISA, which provided an itinerary of Lodge’s engagements in each country he visited, said his travel has been for official business, and that all hiring followed rigorous international standards.

(By Todd Woody)