Hedge funds slash bullish wagers on gold before war jitters
Speculators have reduced net-long positions by 3.6%.
Soaring gold prices are hobbling demand for traditional applications like jewelry and dentistry, but wealthy Asian investors’ voracious appetite is more than offsetting the other declines.
Strong physical bar buying in the over-the-counter market, particularly by family offices in Asia, helped gold demand register its best second quarter in data going back at least 25 years, according to the World Gold Council.
Wealthy individuals and asset managers in China and other parts of the region have piled into the precious metal to help counter their growing “concerns around credit, debt and financial conditions,” Joseph Cavatoni, WGC’s chief market strategist for the Americas, said in an interview. Holding physical gold gives them “comfort” in today’s rapidly evolving climate, he added. Out of the 200 richest people in the world, more than one-quarter are based in Asia, data from Bloomberg show.
In the April to June period, purchases in the difficult-to-track OTC market totaled 329.2 metric tons, bringing total demand to 1,258.2 tons, according to the group’s report. That’s up 4% year on year. Without the strength of the OTC market, demand would have dropped 6% over the same period, due largely to a sharp drop in jewelry consumption.
The report sheds a little more light on the drivers in the world’s gold market, which saw prices climb to eye-popping highs earlier this month. Driving prices is an expectation upcoming interest-rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve would attract more investors into the exchange-traded funds market. The metal has also been supported by continued demand from central banks and rising geopolitical tensions, including the tumultuous US presidential campaign, which boost its appeal as a safe-haven asset.
“The undercurrent of all this is that central banks are still involved,” Cavatoni said. “India and Poland continued to buy” even as China slowed down, he said. Gold buying by central banks is up 6% year on year but down from the brisk first-quarter pace. At the same time, price-sensitive consumers have reined in their jewelry purchases, which fell about 18% quarter-on-quarter, according to the report.
Meanwhile, OTC demand was almost within striking distance of jewelry consumption, long one of the top drivers of global gold demand. Wealthy investors like the OTC market for its opaqueness. Most of the deals are done through dealers or between buyers and sellers directly, without an exchange platform or clearing house.
The WGC, an international trade association of gold producers that lobbies on behalf of its members, sees prices continuing to “maintain or slowly build on current levels” in the second half. Gold is already up about 15% this year.
(By Nick Bartlett and Yvonne Yue Li)
Read More: Global gold ETFs saw second month of inflows in June, says WGC
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