Column: Electric dreams turn into a nightmare for battery metals
A sector that was once racing to build new supply has been closing mines and deferring projects as low prices bite into the cost curve.
Lithium prices are continuing their breakneck ascent in China, with surging electric-vehicle sales underpinning a fivefold gain over the past year.
Chinese lithium carbonate prices tracked by Asian Metal Inc. rose to a fresh record on Monday, as data showed a 35% month-on-month jump in electric-vehicle registrations in December. Nearly 400,000 EVs were registered during the month, according to the China Automotive Technology and Research Center. Tesla Inc. supplied about 18% of the total.
The sales figures offer the latest evidence that the electric-vehicle revolution is now arriving in full force, fueling sharp gains in the shares of carmakers and mining equities alike. Ganfeng Lithium Co., which signed a long-term supply deal with Tesla in November, said its profits for 2021 will be up as much as 437%, fueled by the “fast development” of the EV industry.
But with lithium prices blowing past previous records, there’s a growing risk that raw-material inflation could soon create headwinds for the burgeoning industry. BloombergNEF predicts a 2% rise in battery pack prices this year, potentially pushing out the point at which electric vehicles will reach cost parity with conventional cars to 2026, two years later than its earlier forecast.
And despite the bumper profits on offer, many analysts see the lithium market moving into deeper deficits in the years ahead as producers struggle to bring new projects online. Last week, Serbia blocked plans for Rio Tinto’s Jadar mine, in a dramatic response to local opposition to the project that’s set to pile more pressure on future supply.
(By Mark Burton)
5 Comments
Young-kyum, Kim.
I found the Lithium bearing mineral, Polylithionite, in metasomatized stratum by XRD analysis at Korea(South). It exists wide range of more than 762Km2(with 150 to 250m thick & more than 254 mining lots to Korean standard). By the XRD results, I expect the content of Lithuim is min.2.5% to max.4.5%. So, I suggest to you to develop for these rocks of Lithuim in Polylithionite by your investment.
; 90% recovery. (Li2CO3=6,535,658(ton))
And the rock samples of PD in the other region, contains the next REEs of praseodymium(Pr)((PrF3)), & Neodymium(Nd, (Nioboaeschynite-(Ce)((Ce,Ca,Nd,Ln)(Nb,Ti)2O6) are widely spread of range about 200 km2 for the whole area. The elements of Pr & Nd are imperatively necessary materials in EV motors. Also, widely distributed concerned of this granite has been not yet identified total thickness and its origin. Estimated the numbers of mining claims are more than 60 sites.
I just want to development for lithium bearing stratum & others in South Korea. So, I want to obtain mining right of that area as possible as much amount. In Korean Standard, mining right permits to develop each site during 27 years. To get the each site of mining right has to spend money more than 1billion Won(₩)(ca.900,000$) per each site.
Since 2011, the industry of mining was granted to the foreigners in South Korea, because domestic mining industry was gradually extinguished during last more than 30 years.
If you are reviewed again in these articles for details, give me a e-mail at current address for that how can I do for you to invest of Lithium & REE’s development.
Sincerely yours,
Y.K, Kim. Ph.D., P.E.
Tijjani Sarki Abdullahi
Highly encouraging, latest and updated news always provided here.
OC
I don’t understand how none of the articles breathlessly cheerleading the stratospheric rise in the price of lithium don’t mention that at the current price of 367,500 yuan per tonne of lithium carbonate the lithium content of a kwh of batteries is close to US$50!
I.e. 367,500 / 6.32 x 0.85kg/kwh!
That’s close to 40% of the 2021 cost of batteries without any cost for the cathode materials, electrolyte, anode, battery casing, manufacturing labour and overhead, margins etc!
I.e. prices will have to soar to maintain margins for battery manufacturers.
Clive Delmonte
I would just say that the continuing use of lithium-based batteries is a high-tech operation which vulnerable to further innovation which could cause great difficulty for many miners if it is supplanted by a new idea.
William Tahil
And now the price has gone up to nearly $80,000 per tonne LCE and the content per kWh is actually at least 1.4 kg, not 0.85 kg which means it’s now $112 per kWh battery capacity!