Column: Where will Trump and China drive commodities in 2025?
With no predictable mold for how this will work, the only certainties will likely be volatility and numerous factors working in opposing directions.
Iron ore futures prices extended their declines to a fourth straight session on Thursday, hitting their lowest level in more than 14 months, as persistently weak property data in top consumer China exacerbated pessimism over the demand outlook.
The most-traded January iron ore contract on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) ended morning trade 2.09% lower at 703.5 yuan ($98.32) a metric ton.
The contract hit its lowest since May 26, 2023 at 691 yuan a ton earlier in the session.
The benchmark September iron ore on the Singapore Exchange slid 2.81% to $93.5 a ton, as of 0713 GMT, the lowest since November 2022.
Property investment in China fell 10.2% in the first seven months from a year earlier, after dropping 10.1% in January-June. New construction starts measured by floor area fell 23.2% on year, after a 23.7% drop in the first half of the year, official data showed.
The property market remains China’s largest steel consumer despite the sector’s falling share amid the protracted crisis since 2021.
“We think ore prices will have further downside room in terms of valuation given that it has already broken through a key support level of $100 a ton,” analysts at Shengda Futures said in a note.
Steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange posted further losses with sharp price falls souring sentiment, analysts said.
Rebar lost 0.16%, hot-rolled coil fell 1.71%, wire rod dropped 0.83% and stainless steel was flat.
China’s crude steel output in July fell for a second month, declining by 9.5% from June, as many steelmakers carried out maintenance work amid a widening of already negative profit margins.
That brought the total in the first seven months to 613.72 million tons, a year-on-year fall of 2.2%.
Other steelmaking ingredients on the DCE somewhat recovered following sharp declines on Wednesday, with coking coal and coke up 3.52% and 1.18%, respectively.
($1 = 7.1552 Chinese yuan)
(By Amy Lv and Mei Mei Chu; Editing by Eileen Soreng and Rashmi Aich)
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