Citigroup cuts copper forecast on tariffs risk, China outlook
The bank has cut its short-term outlook for copper prices by 11% to $8,500 a ton over the next three months.
Iron ore gained and copper fluctuated as China’s central bank cut rates to support a sputtering recovery, with another slew of data underscoring challenges across Asia’s largest economy.
The steel-making staple rose after the People’s Bank of China cut the rate on one-year loans by 15 basis points — the most since 2020 — to 2.5%. The surprise move came shortly before the release of July data that showed industrial output, retail sales and fixed-assets investment grew less than expected.
Chinese authorities are also considering cutting the stamp duty on stock trades for the first time since 2008. That could help revive confidence in the country’s equity market and boost sentiment across the financial sector.
Metals have struggled in 2023 as investors’ initial broad-based enthusiasm that China’s end of damaging Covid Zero policies would aid consumption was undermined, with data showing the recovery lacked momentum. A debilitating property-sector crisis has been a particular headwind, especially for iron ore.
“Markets have been aware the economy was slowing,” said David Lennox, a resources analyst at Fat Prophets, “A good stimulatory hit will lift commodity prices, which is what we believe will happen over the remainder of 2023 and into 2024.”
Iron ore traded 0.6% higher at $101 a ton in Singapore at 3:35 p.m. local time after falling as much as 1% earlier. Futures in Dalian ended higher. On the London Metal Exchange, copper fell 0.6% to $8,243 a ton.
Output data showed that crude-steel output in China last month was lower than in June, but still topped 90 million tons during what’s usually a weak period for demand. Investors will track weekly furnace rates to see the ticking-up persists.
Read More: Esmark makes $7.8 billion offer for US Steel Corp
Comments