Iron ore majors ramp up supply even as China faces challenges

Iron ore is one of the year’s worst performing major commodities, slumping by almost a quarter as China’s property crisis drags on despite multiple rounds of state support. While the iron ore majors’ operations remain hugely profitable given their extremely low costs of production, the slump has sparked speculation that less efficient miners may be under pressure.

On Tuesday, Rio described China’s domestic demand as “muted”, noting that the nation’s crude-steel production in the April-May period contracted by 5% on-year, even as exports of the alloy surged. Data compiled by Bloomberg show year-to-date iron ore imports have outstripped last year’s pace, with port inventories ballooning to the highest since 2022, suggesting abundant supply.

“We see good, long-term value in Rio shares, although we are concerned about downside risk to iron ore,” Jefferies LLC analyst Christopher LaFemina said in a note. Prices are expected to fall this half, although Rio should be shielded from the worst given the miner’s exposure to copper and aluminum. he said.

While rating Vale a “buy”, LaFemina said iron ore prices were a risk but its low share price meant it was “inexpensive” for the longer term.

Iron ore futures fell 1.4% to $105.90 a ton in Singapore as of 2:19 p.m. local time after dropping by more than 1% on Tuesday.

The Australian government projects that the nation’s iron ore exports will rise from 893 million tons this year to 940 million in 2026, while Brazil’s will climb from 390 million to 440 million over the same period. The two countries dominate the market, with a quartet of major miners comprising Rio, BHP, Vale, as well as Fortescue Ltd. Prices will slump to an average of $96 a ton this year, and $77 by 2026, Canberra said in the report.

(By Paul-Alain Hunt)