Column: Electric dreams turn into a nightmare for battery metals
A sector that was once racing to build new supply has been closing mines and deferring projects as low prices bite into the cost curve.
Goldman Sachs on Monday cut its iron ore price forecast for the fourth quarter of 2024 by $15, to $85 per metric ton, citing market oversupply even though demand from top consumer China is stabilizing.
Dalian iron ore futures gained last week as the prospect of Chinese stimulus and a recovery in steel demand lifted market sentiment amid the country’s faltering economic recovery.
“We note potential price support from pre-Golden Week holiday restocking over the next two weeks, but a continuing build in total iron ore stocks is setting the scene for another price drop in October,” analysts at the bank said in a note, referring to China’s annual week-long holiday next month.
Iron ore fuels China’s industrial sector, particularly steel production.
Goldman continued to maintain that the likelihood of falling exports posed a key risk to steel production in China in the coming year.
This could lead to a further drop in Chinese iron ore demand “given that we see increased support from domestic demand as unlikely”.
Despite reduced exports from India, the world’s fourth-largest producer of the steel-making ingredient, an oversupply of iron ore is persisting due to low demand, the bank said, adding that balancing the market would require lower-cost producers to also cut production.
But for this to happen, the price of iron ore needs to drop further, it said.
(By Anushree Mukherjee; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)
2 Comments
George Skiba
Why does mining.com persist in showing Bauxite being loaded in numerious Iron Ore Articles.
Riotinto only mines Bauxite at Weipa.
Amanda Stutt
Hi George, the image has been updated.
Thanks,
Amanda