Goldman bullish on commodities, seeing years-long supercycle

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is “extremely bullish” on commodities, amid a supercycle that has the potential to last for a decade, according to Jeff Currie, the bank’s global head of commodities research.

The new year has started against a backdrop that includes record dislocations in energy, metals and agriculture, and significant amounts of money in the system, Currie said in a Bloomberg Television interview. In addition, investment positions in commodities are low, he added.

“The best place to be right now, particularly given the Fed pivot, are commodities,” Currie said, referring to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to begin hiking interest rates later this year. “We think you’re going to see another year of out-performance of commodities and real assets more broadly.”

Goldman stated in October 2020 that commodities were beginning a supercycle that could last years and possibly a decade. The oil market, in particular, could tighten, even with the OPEC+ alliance incrementally adding supplies to the market, as the pandemic continues to threaten demand and investment.

The only two countries in the world that can produce more oil today than they could in January 2020 are Saudi Arabia and the U.A.E., Currie said. “Every other country in the world struggles” to hit its pre-pandemic level. 

Goldman Sachs’s target price for Brent crude in the first quarter is $85 a barrel, but that was under the assumption that Iranian production would return later in the year — which is looking increasingly unlikely — he added. The global benchmark is currently trading around $81 a barrel.

“This market has the potential to get very tight going over the course of next 3-6 months,” Currie said.

(By Brian Wingfield and Francine Lacqua)