Gold’s remarkable year
Gold truly enjoyed a remarkable 2024, relentlessly powering higher to many new records.
Gold held steady as traders weighed monetary tightening path by the US Federal Reserve after economic data pointed to elevated inflation in consumer and producer prices.
A measure of producer-prices fell for a second month in August, although it increased 8.7% from a year ago, Labor Department data showed Wednesday. The print come after hotter-than-expected consumer price data released the previous day and feed into mounting concerns about the breadth and pace of US inflation.
Stubbornly-high inflation will likely keep the Fed’s aggressive interest-rate hikes on track for the coming meetings. Markets have priced in another 75 basis point increase for next week’s meeting, while others were speculating an even larger move.
The Fed’s hawkish monetary tightening has caused the precious metal to trend lower this year as higher interest rates put pressure on non-yielding assets. Persistent outflows from gold-backed exchange-traded funds have also acted as a headwind.
The “persistence of inflation continues to support an aggressive effort by the Fed,” TD Securities commodity strategists led by Bart Melek said in a note. “We expect continued outflows from money managers and ETF holdings to weigh on prices.”
Gold was up 0.2% to $1,705.91 an ounce at 11:03 a.m. in New York. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index weakened slightly after rising 1.2% Tuesday. Silver, platinum and palladium all gained.
Still, “monetary and fiscal policy tightening represent the ‘turning of the screw’ that we believe will keep gold broadly on the defensive this year and next,” James Steel, chief precious metals analyst at HSBC Holdings Plc, wrote in a note. “We anticipate the recent tightening –- which we expect to continue –- will further weigh on gold.”
The bank expects gold prices to average $1,820 an ounce this year before sliding to $1,750 in 2023.
(By Yvonne Yue Li, with assistance from Swansy Afonso, Eddie Spence and James Fernyhough)
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