Gold price pares gains with focus on rates outlook and recession risks

Bullion has had a wild ride this year, tumbling almost 20% since a March peak as the Federal Reserve aggressively tightened monetary policy, prompting investors to seek shelter in the US dollar. The non-yielding metal, which typically has a negative correlation with the dollar and rates, has been pressured by the stronger greenback.

On Tuesday, fresh US data pointed to firm growth in manufacturing that’s underpinned by solid business investment and demand for consumer goods. Treasury yields and a gauge of the US dollar recouped early losses, keeping bullion prices in check. 

“Don’t look at gold as a safe haven,” said TD Securities commodity strategists led by Bart Melek. “Gold prices are unlikely to rise with a deteriorating growth outlook until the Fed makes progress in the war on inflation.”

Softer bullion prices are also weighing on gold mining stocks and exchange-traded funds. Technical signs indicate the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF will continue underperforming compared to the broader market, and even get worse, according to a Bloomberg Intelligence note. The ETF failed to close above a 2020 low for a second time late last week, a bearish pattern.

Spot gold was up 0.1% to $1,651.88 an ounce as of 4:46 p.m. in New York after earlier rising as much as 0.7%. Bullion for December delivery fell 0.5% to settle at $1,655.80 on the Comex. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was down 0.1%. Silver and palladium edged higher while platinum slipped.  

(By Yvonne Yue Li, with assistance from Thomas Biesheuvel and Sing Yee Ong)