Gold powers South African miners to best month on record

The surging gold price has propelled South African mining stocks to their best monthly performance on record, shielding the country’s benchmark index from the mayhem in global markets.

An index of South African mining companies jumped 33% in March, the most in a month since Bloomberg started compiling the data in 1995. That helped the benchmark FTSE/JSE All Share Index post a 3.1% gain for the month, outperforming emerging-market peers and US equities.

Leading the charge have been gold producers, with Harmony Gold Mining Co., the biggest local miner of the metal, and Sibanye Stillwater Ltd. both soaring 48% to make it them the best-performing stocks in the benchmark index. DRDGOLD Ltd. and AngloGold Ashanti Plc were also among the top performers.

Gold miners are back in favor after the metal hit multiple records this year on central-bank buying and haven appeal amid worries about the escalating trade war. And the rally may not be over yet, with Wall Street banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicting further gains. That could fuel profits for gold miners “well in excess” of previous years, said Lester Davids, an analyst at Unum Capital Ltd.

“Gold miners are known to have fixed costs, meaning that as gold prices rise, their profits can increase exponentially,” Davids said.

The South African benchmark’s advance in March outpaced the 0.4% gain in MSCI Inc.’s index of emerging-market equities. In dollar terms, the South African gauge added almost 5%, compared with a loss of close to 6% for the S&P 500.

Bullion neared $3,150 an ounce on Tuesday, on pace for a fourth day of gains. Traders are on edge as President Trump plans to announce sweeping levies on all of America’s trading partners on Wednesday, raising the risks of retaliatory measures. The metal may rise as high as $3,300 in the coming months, according to Goldman Sachs.

“I remain happy to ride this momentum wave to the upside, with bullion’s salad days unlikely to come to an end any time soon,” said Michael Brown, a senior research strategist at Pepperstone Group Ltd. “The rally isn’t quite indestructible, but the bulls continue to believe in their soul for now.”

South African platinum producers have also thrived, as a slowdown in sales of electric vehicles spurred demand for the commodity, which is used in gasoline-powered engines. The spot price of platinum is up about 10% year to date, powering the shares of producers including Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd., up 43% in March, and Northam Platinum Holdings Ltd., up 35%.

“March has largely been a continuation of some of the year-to-date themes where precious metals and a couple of large-market-cap stocks have led the market higher,” said Peter Takaendesa, head of equities at Mergence Investment Managers Ltd.

The global rotation out of US equities has also benefited South African stocks, according Unum Capital’s Davids.

“The Johannesburg Stock Exchange has been a beneficiary of the flows, with relatively lower valuations being one of the key drivers,” he said. The forward price-earnings ratio for the FTSE/JSE Africa All Share Index is about 15, compared with about 21 for the S&P 500, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

(By Khuleko Siwele)