Copper price holds near 9-month low as 2025 opens with eyes on China

Xi Jinping Image: Thierry Ehrmann

Copper steadied near a nine-month low on the first trading day of the year, with investors weighing the scope for additional stimulus from Beijing in 2025 as the country’s stock market came under pressure.

Prices initially rallied more than 1% on the London Metal Exchange, but pared gains alongside other metals as Chinese stock markets got off to the worst start to the year since 2016. European markets also opened lower. 

The selling pressure came as a weaker-than-expected Caixin manufacturing survey for December raised doubts about the strength of China’s economic recovery.

For the year to come, the market is focused on whether there will be a recovery in the nation’s embattled property sector, a key demand pillar for metals, as well as the potential impact of trade frictions from Donald Trump’s US presidency. Officials have pledged to use greater public borrowing and spending as well as monetary easing to spur growth in 2025. 

Investors are “waiting to see if and when Chinese support measures will feed their way into metals markets in the form of stronger demand,” said Ewa Manthey, a commodities strategist at ING, said by email. “Trump’s tariffs could also trigger bigger stimulus from China, capping the downside for copper prices this year.”

Chinese President Xi Jinping acknowledged new challenges from the external environment in a New Year’s Eve speech on Tuesday. Earlier that day, he said China is on track to meet its official growth target of about 5% for 2024 and the economy is “overall stable.” 

The LMEX Index of six metals on the London Metal Exchange closed out 2024 with a modest gain of about 4%, as softer Chinese demand was offset by flashes of supply stress on falling inventories and mine supply shortages. 

Copper was 0.1% higher at $8,779 a ton on the LME at 11:13 a.m. local time. Zinc fell 1% to $2,948.50 a ton, following a 12% advance last year, while nickel was down 0.8%.

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