Column: Study Group has a sobering message for copper bulls
There's no shortage of copper, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), which has just updated its supply and demand forecasts.
Codelco’s output has begun to recover from a slump that has thrown its status as the world’s largest copper miner into doubt, with the company’s chairman saying production rose year-on-year in August and September.
Over the past year, the Chilean state-owned company has seen its output tumble to the lowest in decades as it struggled with disruptions at mines and long delays at projects. But Maximo Pacheco said in an interview that the company’s production had begun to recover — rising by about 5,000 tons year-on-year in August and by about 6,000 tons year-on-year in September.
Pacheco said the company expects to achieve its forecast for 2024 production to exceed last year’s level, even though output through July was down 8.6% from a year earlier.
“We are doing everything we need to do in order to make sure that Codelco production starts to recover in 2024,” he said. “We feel the pressure of the market. We feel the pressure of the world that needs copper.”
He said Codelco would not publish guidance on 2025 production until later this year, but that it would be higher than 2024’s level.
Pacheco said that Codelco’s next phase of growth would be through partnerships with other major mining companies, highlighting its recent deals to buy a stake in Teck Resources Ltd.’s Quebrada Blanca mine and a lithium agreement with SQM.
He said that the company has seen strong interest from “very first-class mining companies of the world” to partner with Codelco in its Maricunga lithium project, despite weakness in the lithium price. Codelco will soon shortlist the bidders, with a view to choosing a partner in early 2025, he said.
Codelco has also received expressions of interest from several parties to build a new copper smelter in Chile, he said — which could have capacity of about 1 million tons per year. While Codelco would supply the smelter with copper concentrates and purchase its output, it wouldn’t necessarily be a shareholder.
Pointing to Codelco’s capital expenditure plans of $4.7 billion this year and nearly $6 billion in 2025, he said: “We have a lot of mining projects where we have to invest this money.”
(By Jack Farchy and Mark Burton)
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