Cochilco expects copper price to be $4.25/lb through 2026

Chile’s state copper commission Cochilco held its copper price forecast for 2025 steady at $4.25 per pound and also used the same price for its new 2026 projection, the agency said on Thursday.

Cochilco raised its 2025 price to $4.25 from $3.85 last May and has kept the projection steady ever since. It said it expects copper prices to remain above $4.00 over the next decade.

“These projections are supported by a rise in copper demand from the energy transition, electricity grids and a limited supply,” Claudia Rodriguez, Cochilco’s interim VP, said in a statement, adding that geopolitical tensions also played a role.

“Uncertainty about China’s economic recovery, tariffs implemented by the United States and the hardening of monetary policy could limit the demand for copper, affecting its price,” Rodriguez said.

Cochilco expects the global copper deficit to be 118,000 metric tons this year with a surplus of 210,000 tons through to next year.

It also expects Chile’s copper production to rise by 4.6% this year to 5.76 million tons and grow another 3.6% to 5.97 million tons in 2026.

(By Fabian Cambero and Alexander Villegas; Editing by Barbara Lewis)