Cochilco cuts 2023 copper price forecast to $3.85/lb

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The Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) on Wednesday lowered its forecast for the average copper price in 2023 to $3.85 per pound amid doubts about international economic performance.

“The copper price forecast adjustment for this year is due to several factors, one of which is uncertainty regarding China’s economic growth,” Cochilco said in a statement.

“Additionally, there is the economic contraction affecting the European zone and doubts about the economic expansion in the United States.”

The agency had previously set a forecast of $3.90 in May. For 2024, Cochilco adjusted its previous forecast of $3.80 to $3.75.

It also estimates that the global market will close with a copper surplus of around 130,000 metric tons this year.

Chile’s copper mine production will reach 5.4 million tons this year according to Cochilco, which represents a year-on-year increase of 1%. It predicts an increase of 4.3% to 5.6 million tons in 2024.

One of the factors favoring production is Teck’s Quebrada Blanca Phase 2’s production entering the market.

(By Fabian Cambero; Editing in Sarah Morland and Jonathan Oatis)

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