Citi cuts copper price forecast, sees 25% US import tariff in second quarter

Citi Research forecast that a 25% US copper import tariff would be imposed in the second quarter of this year and lowered its three-month price outlook to $9,500 per metric tonne, down from $10,000 per tonne, the brokerage said in a note on Thursday.

Last month, US President Donald Trump ordered a new probe into potential tariffs on copper imports to rebuild US production of a metal critical to electric vehicles, military hardware, semiconductors and a wide range of consumer goods.

Trump on Wednesday unveiled a 25% tariff on imported cars and light trucks starting next week, widening the global trade war.

Citi said that it expects Section 232 tariffs on US copper imports, set at 25%, to be announced as early as April and implemented by May.

“We still see copper easing to average $8,800/t through H2’25 on a broader unwind of physical demand in reaction to implementation of broader US import tariff hikes and US growth headwinds,” Citi added.

Benchmark three-month copper on the London Metals Exchange (LME) was up 0.6% at $9,982.5 a metric ton as of 05:36 GMT.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs forecasts LME copper prices at $9,600, $10,000, and $10,700 per metric ton over the next three, six, and 12 months, respectively. The bank also highlighted near-term downside risks to prices from a trade policy update set to take effect on April 2.

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