Column: Electric dreams turn into a nightmare for battery metals
A sector that was once racing to build new supply has been closing mines and deferring projects as low prices bite into the cost curve.
Chinese exports of critical minerals are returning to more normal levels, undercutting fears that the restrictions imposed by the government last year could choke off supplies crucial to high-tech manufacturers around the world.
Overseas sales of gallium, germanium and graphite show a spike in the month that preceded export controls as buyers stocked up, followed by a steep drop off and then a recovery, according to customs figures. The data could offer a precedent for buyers of antimony, a metal widely used in munitions, which is slated for restrictions beginning next month.
The restrictions on critical minerals, one of the few commodities where China dominates mined supply, were imposed in August and December. The curbs are widely viewed as Beijing’s response to US-led controls on its access to high-end chips and technology linked to artificial intelligence. China is also motivated to restrain exports to maintain low prices for its own refineries and factories.
Gallium sales have shown the biggest recovery since the constraints were imposed. The other two minerals have lagged somewhat, although that’s more to do with other factors, including efforts to loosen China’s grip on supply.
Natural graphite exports fell 17% to 101,233 tons in the first seven months of 2024 from a year ago. That’s largely due to a ramp up in overseas mining, as well as slowing demand for the electric vehicles that use the material in their batteries, said Xu Peng, an analyst with BloombergNEF.
Chinese graphite prices have plunged over the past year, part of the general weakness in battery materials. Gallium and germanium remain very strong, however, with the latter at a record due to robust global demand across a swathe of high-tech applications, from infrared sensors to fiber-optics.
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