Column: Electric dreams turn into a nightmare for battery metals
A sector that was once racing to build new supply has been closing mines and deferring projects as low prices bite into the cost curve.
China’s imports of antimony ore are likely to be affected in the fourth quarter amid supply constraints, according to state-backed research house Antaike.
Imports rose 37.6% for January-July this year due to an increase in production in Thailand, which accounted for 31% of the total imports for the period.
Thailand is not a major antimony ore producer and is likely a transit point, so imports from the country will not be sustainable, Antaike analysts said in a note on Wednesday.
China last year accounted for 48% of the global mined output of antimony, a strategic metal used in military applications such as ammunition, infrared missiles, nuclear weapons and night vision goggles, as well as in batteries and photovoltaic equipment.
Tight antimony concentrate supplies have curbed refining production and pushed up prices both in China and abroad to record highs this year.
Rising overseas buying interest stemming from fears of reduced supplies following China’s export limits on antimony and related elements from Sept. 15 has resulted in overseas prices outpacing domestic ones.
“The imports of antimony concentrate have been generally on the decline in the past five years despite a slight pick-up in 2023 and 2024,” Antaike said.
Imports of the concentrate have fallen because of output reductions in major suppliers such as Tajikistan, Russia and Australia after 2019, and mounting demand from countries in Southeast Asia and Central Asia, the research firm said.
Additionally, sanctions on Russia in the international settlement system due to its invasion of Ukraine have hindered trading in the concentrate.
China’s imports of antimony concentrates from Russia – one of its top suppliers – plunged 96% to 278 metric tons for the first seven months of this year, customs data showed.
These kind of structural changes in imports have underscored the uncertainties that China is facing in terms of antimony ore trading, which will require more diversified import channels so as to enhance the resilience in the supply chain, Antaike said.
(By Amy Lv and Mai Nguyen; Editing by Sonia Cheema)
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