Citigroup cuts copper forecast on tariffs risk, China outlook
The bank has cut its short-term outlook for copper prices by 11% to $8,500 a ton over the next three months.
Aluminum prices climbed on Tuesday to their highest in more than a week on worries about output cuts in top producer China, though rising inventories capped gains.
Benchmark aluminum on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was 0.3% up at $2,465 a tonne at 1704 GMT after touching its highest since Feb. 10 at $2,485.
[Click here for an interactive aluminum price chart]
China’s Yunnan province has asked aluminum producers to reduce power consumption by 40-42% from September levels in the face of an ongoing supply crunch.
“Aluminum prices have been supported by the prospect of capacity curtailment in China due to power availability. This could see output cuts as seasonal demand starts to pick up in March,” said Sucden Financial analyst Geordie Wilkes.
Analysts estimate output cuts at smelters in China since the middle of last year will cut supplies in the top consumer to less than 40 million tonnes by the end of February.
Aluminum stocks in LME-registered warehouses have nearly doubled to 581,300 tonnes since Feb. 6. In warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange, aluminum inventories have jumped 360% since late December to 249,598 tonnes.
On the technical front, support for aluminum comes from the 200-day moving average around $2,245. Resistance is at $2,480, the 50-day moving average.
Meanwhile, copper was up 0.3% at $9,172.50 a tonne after touching its highest since Feb. 2 at $9,211.50.
Copper has been under pressure from a stronger US currency, which makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies.
“Copper is dominated by moves in the dollar and the Fed,” Wilkes said, adding that a discount for the cash contract over three-month copper suggested weak demand.
Strong US labor data and signs of persistent inflation have raised the chances of the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates further than many previously expected.
In other metals, zinc fell 0.5% to $3,110.50 a tonne, lead slipped 0.5% to $2,144, tin was up 3.1% at $27,530 and nickel gained 0.6% to $27,095.
(By Pratima Desai and Peter Hobson; Editing by David Goodman and Alexander Smith)
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