Iron ore rises on pre-holiday restocking, China stimulus hopes
"Winter restocking of iron ore among steel mills is still underway, so we believe ore prices will find some support in the near term," analyst says.
China’s iron ore imports in September rose 2.7% from August and climbed 2.9% from the year before, customs data showed on Monday, as bookings were encouraged by lower prices and hopes for improved demand during the peak construction season.
China, the world’s largest iron ore consumer, brought in 104.13 million metric tons of the key steelmaking ingredient last month, the highest level since January, according to data from the General Administration of Customs.
That beat forecasts of between 98 million and 103 million tons by analysts, citing typhoon-linked impact on customs clearance and fewer shipments from high-cost miners.
The volume last month compared with 101.39 million tons in August and 101.18 million tons in the same month in 2023.
Falling prices due to declining demand and high portside stocks were propelling more booking from abroad on anticipation that demand will pick up in September and October.
The average price in both August and September stood well below $100 a ton, data from consultancy Steelhome showed.
Lower domestic output also encouraged mills to buy more seaborne cargoes, said analysts.
China’s domestically produced iron ore in August slipped 9.4% on the year to around 22.25 million tons, data from the Metallurgical Mines’ Association of China showed.
Imports in October are likely to stay high because price recovery from late September, thanks to an improved demand outlook following China’s aggressive stimulus package, will encourage more shipments from high-cost miners, said analysts.
In the first three quarters of 2024, China’s iron ore imports totalled 918.87 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, the data showed.
China’s steel exports in September jumped by 25.93% from the year before to 10.15 million tons, the highest for a single month since July 2016.
Exports in the first nine months of the year climbed 21.2% from the year before to 80.71 million tons, mainly driven by better gross profit in the export market than the domestic one, the China Iron and Steel Association said in a note on its WeChat account on Saturday.
China imported 554,000 tons of steel products last month, up 8.84% from August and down 13.44% from the prior year, with the January-September total at 5.19 million tons, a 9% annual fall.
(By Amy Lv and Colleen Howe; Editing by Louise Heavens and Bernadette Baum)
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