Column: Demand weakness helps cushion tin from supply problems
Tin demand last year was weaker than expected and is on course for only a modest recovery in 2024, according to the International Tin Association.
Copper is likely to trade in a tight range of $8,500 to $9,500 a metric ton until policy support in top consumer China starts to create some demand strength, according to veteran commodities analyst Jeff Currie.
The red metal has fallen 19% from May’s all-time high of $11,104.50 a ton, pressured by bloated inventories and signs that consumption in China is soft.
The weakness in China’s property market — a key pillar for copper consumption — “is currently dominating,” said Currie, chief strategy officer of Carlyle Group’s Energy Pathways, during a Bloomberg TV interview.
Copper “still has a floor based upon that strong structural supply story, but it has a cap on the upside based upon that weakness in demand,” he said in the Tuesday interview. “I would say $8,500 on the bottom, $9,500 on the top until we start to see the policy begin to create some strength in China.”
While at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Currie and fellow market analyst Nicholas Snowdon predicted that copper would reach $15,000 a ton by 2025. Currie joined Carlyle in February.
Copper’s rally earlier this year was largely driven by hedge funds’ bullish bets amid supply disruptions and robust demand from energy-transition-related themes including artificial intelligence and data centers.
(By Yvonne Yue Li, Alix Steel and Romaine Bostick)
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