Column: Electric dreams turn into a nightmare for battery metals
A sector that was once racing to build new supply has been closing mines and deferring projects as low prices bite into the cost curve.
Shares in Australia’s iron ore miners slumped on Monday after another round of stimulus measures by their top customer China disappointed investors who had hoped for measures that would boost commodities demand.
Iron ore prices slid to their lowest in more than two weeks on Monday after China’s latest $1.4 trillion package unveiled on Friday offered no direct economic stimulus.
BHP Group, the world’s largest listed miner, lost around 4% in its worst day in more than six months, while the world’s biggest iron ore producer Rio Tinto shed 3.1% to clock its worst day since mid-August.
Fortescue, Australia’s third-biggest and the world’s fourth-largest iron ore producer, ended the day more than 7% in the red at its near seven-week low.
“Not only has China’s recent stimulus package fallen short of investor expectations, but the weekend’s fresh disappointments from the inflation report and FDI data have also reinforced the view that China is still far from stabilizing its beleaguered economy,” Hebe Chen, a market analyst at IG, said.
“This gloomy outlook, unfortunately, casts an even darker cloud over Australian miners.”
Mining stocks were the biggest drag on the Australian benchmark index, which ended the session 0.4% lower.
A potential hit to the Chinese economy, already plagued by debt, deflation, and weak demand, from threatened US tariffs, could also hurt demand for Australia’s biggest exports to China – iron ore and coal.
Analysts at Citi last week forecast a grim near-term outlook for iron ore prices, expecting iron ore to average $85 per tonne in 2026 down from roughly $105 per tonne on Nov. 11.
Additional supply from Simandou in Guinea, incremental supply from Australia and Brazil, and overall weak demand from Chinese customers at a time when steel producers are trying to reduce their carbon emissions will pressure iron ore prices, Citi analysts said.
(By Sameer Manekar and Sneha Kumar; Editing by Sonali Paul)
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