B2Gold says Mali risks reduced, to continue exploration spending
B2Gold was one of the first companies to negotiate a settlement with Mali over its new code.
Critical metals, uranium and gold will shine this year driven by accelerating deglobalization and energy security demands, Sprott said in a special report Monday.
Broader trade conflicts affecting allies and adversaries alike could reduce business investment and global GDP, while decoupling due to rising protectionism and trade tensions will likely accelerate in sectors that are strategic like AI, advanced technology, finance and defence, the asset management company stated.
All of this could drive electrification efforts into higher gear and sustain demand for critical minerals, uranium and gold, said Sprott, which manages some $34 billion in assets.
Self-reliance and reduced foreign dependence will be key trends in the energy sector this year as countries further decouple and populist and nationalist ideologies come to the fore. This could augment rivalries over critical resources, with resource nationalism driving energy policy.
Prices of commodities tied to critical energy materials such as uranium, copper and silver are already outperforming those commodities affected most by China’s economic policies such as iron ore and metallurgical coal, and this trend is likely to persist in 2025, Sprott said.
President Donald Trump’s intention to roll back policies supportive of electric vehicles and renewables has introduced uncertainty and could include eliminating a $7,500 tax credit for EVs while reducing dependence on batteries and critical minerals from China. But it may boost EV sales in the short term, BMO Capital Markets said on Wednesday.
Trump has signed an executive order cancelling Biden’s target of electric vehicles to be half of auto sales by 2030, and the new president is redirecting unspent government funds for charging stations. The order also seeks to keep combustion engine autos in play longer by tweaking rules for states and the Environmental Protection Administration, but that tactic may be challenged.
If Trump repeals all the tax credits under the Biden-Harris administration’s Inflation Reduction Act, solar, wind and energy storage construction would be 19% less over the next five years, according to an analysis by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), a unit of the news wire. But even so, renewables would more than double because they have momentum, it added.
What’s more, a full repeal of existing clean energy legislation “appears unlikely” according to Sprott.
Political shifts, inflation and geopolitical tensions mean that market volatility will be a key characteristic this year, Sprott said. The risk of aggressive tariffs and trade wars “casts a strong shadow on risk assets” and policy uncertainty “could dampen investor confidence.”
As a zero-emission, baseload energy source, nuclear energy is well positioned in 2025 to support the energy required in AI’s data centres, machine learning and digital infrastructure. This year Sprott sees “accelerated investment in both AI-driven applications and nuclear energy infrastructure as their synergies become more apparent.”
Prices for uranium in the short-term market hit a 16-year high last year and Sprott, which manages the world’s largest physical trust of the metal at $4.9 billion, says the market for the nuclear fuel will continue to grow and remain in a bull market this year. (The average and maximum uranium spot prices in 2024 were their highest in the last six years.)
“Regardless of spot price movements, uranium’s underlying fundamentals continue to grow stronger, driven by accelerating demand, supply constraints and favorable nuclear energy policies,” Sprott noted.
At the same time, current global uranium mine production is insufficient to meet the world’s nuclear reactor needs and there is a structural deficit. While junior miners are restarting mines due to historically high uranium prices, their efforts will unlikely close the supply-demand gap, Sprott said.
Geopolitics and instability in uranium producing countries like Niger and Russia also adds uncertainty.
Sprott argues that while some utilities are covered, others do not have the appropriate procurement strategies in place.
“We believe that available-for-sale inventories, critical to utilities, have been depleted,” Sprott said. “Utilities’ needs may cascade down the supply chain from conversion and enrichment, where prices are hitting all-time highs, to U3O8 itself.”
Copper is one of the most compelling commodities this year, according to Sprott. AI and data centres rely on copper for infrastructure and its “new omnipresence in the energy-intensive future of global economies may shield it from tariffs proposed by the incoming Trump administration, a threat that has been weighing on the copper market post-election.”
Supply remains a concern and Sprott expects the supply deficit will widen through 2025 and beyond. Production disruptions are expected to continue in the coming quarters, and insufficient investment in future copper supply is a “critical bottleneck.” Declining grades and long project lead times have also constrained supply.
In addition, tighter availability of copper concentrate could put additional upward pressure on prices, while “overcapacity in the smelting sector adds pressure to the upstream segment of the supply chain and may continue to depress treatment charges.”
The gold price jumped 27% in 2024, largely due to central bank and sovereign purchases, and Sprott expects demand from this sector will continue to lift gold prices this year.
“Most central banks expect the US dollar to decline as a proportion of their total reserves, with gold’s share expected to rise over the next five years,” Sprott said. Inflation and geopolitics will also be supportive of the precious metal in 2025.
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