Where is gold headed in 2014? – Mishka Vom Dorp

Mishka Vom Dorp, who joined Sprott Global Resource Investments Ltd. in 2008, explained why he believes precious metals have sunk – and where they are headed next.

“With government debt, unfunded liabilities and the money supply reaching all-time highs, surely the gold price should be increasing as well?

“The answer is, I believe, that in the short term, gold has not yet had time to react fundamentally. Whether you follow the official government CPI figures or alternative methods of computing inflation, we have yet to see the double digit inflation figures of the 70’s. There are two explanations that I believe are responsible for the lack of inflation that we see now but that we might see in the future.

“First and foremost, an increase in the money supply does not directly result in inflation.  In fact, the correlation between increases in M1 – money held by the general public – and inflation becomes apparent only when the timeframe is extended beyond a five year period. Over this longer time frame, the correlation becomes almost perfect.¹ 

“Secondly, two thirds of the freshly printed greenbacks have not been released into circulation and are being held directly at the Fed in what are called ‘excess reserves.’²

“The Fed has, so far, incentivized banks to keep cash there instead of lending it out by paying interest on the reserves. Remember that the amount of un-lent capital held at the Fed is increasing on a year-to-year basis and rising interest rates would cause those reserves to snowball. The Fed will eventually have to cut interest payments on excess reserves, thus releasing a large amount of capital into the financial system, leading to inflation if not enough GDP growth is there to accommodate the influx of new dollars.”

So rising interest rates could bring current levels of excess reserves down and boost inflation if the economy fails to deliver sufficient growth. Inflation may therefore rear its ugly head after all… As Mishka concludes, now is not the time to dump gold and precious metals equities.

“With a dwindling supply of juniors, continuing write-downs on assets by majors, and a continuing of easy money policies, I believe we are close to finding the elusive bottom to this bear market.

“The longer the bear market, the stronger the bull. Investments in exploration and development of mineral deposits have fallen massively over the past three years. Mineral exploration is an extremely capital intensive business requiring billions of dollars in investments to find and develop large scale mines. With majors cutting their budgets across the board to bring down costs demanded by investors, it has been left to the juniors to ensure discoveries are made to meet current and future demand.

“Now that only a handful of competing resource investors are still around, we will have the ability to research, finance and invest in what we believe are the best companies without the need compete with an eager market.

“I would be devastated to have sat through this bear market this far with you only to have missed out when the picture finally shifted in our favor.”

Mishka Vom Dorp joined Sprott Global Resource Investments Ltd. in 2008. He works closely with Rick Rule, to identify oil and gas investments, where he has sought opportunities when the sector was out of favor. He maintains a highly contrarian philosophy and investment approach. Mishka holds an MBA in finance and a BSB in International Business form the Umea School of Business and Economics. He is currently an Investment Executive at Sprott Global. Contact Mishka at [email protected] or call 800.477.7853.

¹http://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/QR/QR1931.pdf

²http://www.forbes.com/sites/kotlikoff/2013/09/28/is-hyperinflation-just-around-the-corner/2/