Iron ore weakness to continue into 2025 and beyond, says Fitch Solutions’ BMI
Looking beyond 2024-2025, BMI analysts maintained their view that iron ore prices will likely follow a multi-year downtrend.
Iron ore futures gained for a second session on Tuesday, as better-than-expected loan data from top iron ore consumer China, a stronger yuan and anticipation of pre-holiday restocking bolstered investor sentiment.
The benchmark October iron ore on the Singapore Exchange climbed 1.19% to $118.75 a metric ton, as of 0706 GMT, hitting its highest level since March 31.
The most-traded January iron ore on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) ended daytime trading 1.96% higher at 859 yuan ($117.76) a ton, hitting the highest level since Sept. 7.
Chinese banks extended 1.36 trillion yuan in new yuan loans in August, up from 345.9 billion yuan in July, data from People’s Bank of China showed on Monday, higher than the estimated 1.20 trillion yuan in a Reuters poll.
Earlier on Monday data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed the consumer price index rose 0.1% in August from a year earlier, after falling 0.3% in the previous month.
“Better-than-expected Chinese credit data, signalling stabilization in household demand for mortgages, also boosted sentiment,” analysts at ING bank said in a note.
Other steelmaking ingredients also strengthened, with coking coal and coke on the DCE up 5.06% and 2.88%, respectively, hitting their highest levels in six months.
“The latest round of proposal to hike coke prices among coking plants buoyed sentiment,” said Pei Hao, a Shanghai-based analyst at international brokerage FIS.
“It also found some support from the recently rising prices in the seaborne coking coal market amid comparatively limited availability and steady demand.”
Steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange broadly advanced amid rising raw material prices.
Rebar climbed 1.36%, hot-rolled coil added 1.52%, and wire rod was little changed.
Stainless steel fell 1.02%.
A Reuters poll of 76 analysts, based in and outside mainland China, predicted the economy would grow 5.0% this year, lower than a 5.5% expansion forecast in July.
($1 = 7.2943 Chinese yuan)
(By Amy Lv and Dominique Patton; Editing by Rashmi Aich and Subhranshu Sahu)
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