Mining’s old guard needs strong medicine
A new report details subpar investor returns in the mining industry over the last decade, particularly big cap diversified companies which have not adapted to new realities.
Released last Friday by the Bank of Botswana, the latest diamond export figures confirm seesaw trends in the global demand for diamonds since the New Year, with most producers reporting below trend performance.According to the data, second quarter diamond exports were most significantly low in April at P1.64 billion, before rising to P2.43 billion and P2.71 billion in May and June respectively.First quarter diamond figures, by comparison, were weighed down by a low of P805 million in January, before rising to P2.23 billion and P2.95 billion in February and March respectively.
The second quarter figures are in line with experts’ projections that the ongoing uncertainty in the Euro zone economy, coupled with declining demand from emerging markets in the East, would dampen both rough and polished sales.”Since May, the diamond market has experienced challenging trading conditions due to reduced liquidity on the back of the continuing Eurozone crisis and reduced demand in the emerging East, particularly India,” junior miner, Gem Diamonds said in a trade update last week.”This has resulted in increased stock levels of rough and polished diamonds in the manufacturing sector. “May and June saw the first negative movements in the company’s rough market price indices, as prices decline across the sector.”
Local analysts have previously said diamond figures published by Statistics Botswana suggested higher levels of inventory in the market, which consequently lowered demand for rough diamonds. De Beers also noted the growth of stock among the diamond cutters and polishers who hold exclusive rights to supply from its mines worldwide. In a recent half-year results announcement, the diamond giant, which holds 50 percent equity in world-leading local producer, Debswana, also stressed the challenges that faced its coterie of cutters and polishers, known as sightholders.”While overall consumer demand for polished diamonds remained relatively healthy, sightholder demand was impacted by increased stock in the cutting centres, tightening liquidity and challenging conditions in India,” De Beers said in its results announcement.
“However, early indications are that the US market continued to perform well, and the Chinese market, while slowing considerably, still showed positive growth.” Both De Beers and Gem Diamonds expect the harsh market conditions to continue this year, although opportunities for growth exist.”De Beers expects trading conditions in the mid-stream to remain challenging during the second half of 2012,” the company said.”De Beers will continue to produce in line with sightholder demand and invest in stimulating and capturing consumer demand growth.”Similarly, Gem Diamonds, which is developing a US$85 million mine in central Botswana, expects “short-term volatility” to continue in the diamond market, with July and August being particularly slow due to the holidays in the US and Europe. Both diamond producers are however confident the long-term outlook for diamonds remains positive as the growth in demand continues to exceed the growth in supply.
