Supply-demand imbalance looms for critical battery raw materials by 2030: McKinsey
By 2030, McKinsey estimates that worldwide demand for passenger cars in the BEV segment will grow sixfold from 2021 through 2030.
BHP Group’s attempt to swallow up Anglo American Plc is the latest threat to one of the London stock market’s most-prized sectors, following speculation that other big names in the commodities space could ditch their UK listings.
While Anglo slammed BHP’s £31.1 billion ($39 billion) offer as “opportunistic” and “unattractive,” analysts expect the Australian company — or perhaps another rival — to try again. Bloomberg reported Friday that US activist Elliott Investment Management has built a $1 billion stake in Anglo, ramping up pressure on the company.
The saga comes just weeks after Deutsche Bank AG pondered whether Glencore Plc should weigh a move to the New York Stock Exchange, partly because American investors are more accepting of fossil fuels. Shell Plc chief executive officer Wael Sawan, meanwhile, has noted London’s valuation discount to Wall Street.
The predatory circling of Anglo American is “another blow to the London market,” said Jamie Maddock, energy analyst at Quilter Cheviot.
While Anglo is among the FTSE 100’s smaller commodities companies, mining and energy stocks account for more than a fifth of the UK bluechip index, with a combined market capitalization of £478 billion. The Euro Stoxx 50, meanwhile, has just two commodities companies — TotalEnergies SE and Eni SpA — which have a combined weighting of less than 6%.
From the perspective of mining stocks, London is also the continent’s dominant trading hub, with UK firms accounting for more than 60% of the Stoxx 600 Basic Resources Index.
To be sure, Anglo wouldn’t entirely disappear from the London Stock Exchange if BHP seals a deal, as the Australian giant maintains a secondary UK listing. It’s also possible that UK miners are simply destined to consolidate, with analysts at stockbroker Liberum on Friday writing that Rio Tinto Plc is the most likely candidate to make a rival bid for Anglo.
But chatter around the future of London’s commodities firms is the latest issue for a city that’s already seen several large companies pursue listings elsewhere. CRH Plc and Ferguson Plc, for instance, headed to New York with both citing how much revenue they make in the US. Retail tech company Ocado Group Plc is under pressure to consider a switch across the Atlantic, the Telegraph newspaper reported last weekend, while on Thursday pharma business Indivior Plc confirmed it is pursuing a move stateside.
“While the exit of notable firms like Anglo and Shell would be a blow, it’s the aggregate effect of multiple companies leaving that would pose a more significant risk to London’s position,” said Maddock at Quilter Cheviot.
(By Joe Easton)
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