Here is one interpretation of when we’ll run out of each metal or energy source. While the technicalities of some of this information can be debated, I think the general theme runs the same. There is a limited supply of these commodities – and if there are no discoveries, no price changes, and no changes in consumption, we are running out relatively soon. In my opinion, there are two caveats that are always worth considering when looking at something like this.
1. “Reserves” are an engineering number that are based on economic viability. Technically speaking, there are small concentrations of gold everywhere. It is just not usually viable to mine 0.1 g/t gold. When we will “run out” of each mineral in this chart is based on current reserves and prices. If the gold price doubles, then suddenly it is economic to mine more.
2. This chart is a reminder that something has to give. Either prices are going to have to go up, or new amazing discoveries have to be made to keep prices down. It’s basic economics, and either way it seems that there are many opportunities in the mining industry for investors and speculators on both fronts.
6 Comments
DJR96
Just 25 years to get the vast majority of the worlds vehicle fleet off oil.
You’d think there would be a little more urgency in making this happen wouldn’t you?
PQR
Just remember we didn’t leave the stone age because we ran out of stones. We won’t leave the carbon age (Oil/gas/Coal) because we have run out of these fuels. We will leave the carbon age when we find more efficient lower cost alternative!
picquet
Optimism – the new petroleum!
Actually, it’s highly unlikely that there is anything ‘new’ to be discovered, only better means of making use of present resources, such as the huge potential of sunlight, fusion, tide, wind. The hard bit is in getting investment for research.
DLW55
Has the author ever heard of ‘resources’ as a further definition of potential availability. Does the wonderfully simplistic model take into account sub-sea mining potential? Similar models were used in the 1960’s which forecast an end to oil in the early part of this century – enough said.
Love Your Planet
When will we ever learn?
Humankind is bent on self-destruction and taking down this
beautiful Planet along with us.
We will all be so proud to turn Earth into Mars Mark 2 – and
wiped ourselves and all living organisms out at the same time.
Time to think Planetism and account for our anti-Planet Earth
activities.
J
isn’t kind of fun to see that the Rare Earths are everything but rare? during the hype of these metals no-one understood that!