Making the most of declining junior miners
Miners are underperforming gold despite getting support from the stock market.
Gold edged lower after its best week since 2008 amid investor caution on policies aimed at mitigating the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.
Bullion’s muted trading comes after the gold market was thrown into turmoil last week as the health crisis disrupted supply chains, creating a squeeze in futures as sellers’ capacity to meet commitments to deliver the metal was curtailed.
While the squeeze showed signs of easing before the weekend, the physical market remains tight, with key Swiss refineries remaining shut for at least another week.
“The physical demand is still high,” said Dick Poon, general manager of Heraeus Metals Hong Kong Ltd. Limited refineries remain in production and logistics are difficult to manage, he said.
“Given the current levels of Treasury yields and the dollar strength, gold is still trading below what we deem as fair and we remain bullish on the precious metal”
Volatility has spiked this month as, in addition to the supply squeeze, some investors sold the metal to raise cash to cover losses elsewhere. The U.S. dollar has also emerged as a preferred haven, heading for its best month since late 2016, amid concerns over liquidity and funding conditions across markets.
The dollar rebounded and U.S. equity futures slipped Monday after the top American infectious disease expert said deaths from the coronavirus in the world’s largest economy may reach 200,000.
President Donald Trump signed a $2 trillion economic stimulus package Friday, the largest in U.S. history, while the Federal Reserve has pledged unlimited bond purchases. Elsewhere, the European Central Bank scrapped most of the bond-buying limits in its pandemic emergency program.
“Liquidity will likely be the key focus in the next couple of days as we approach quarter-end,” said Howie Lee, an economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. “Similar to what we saw in early March, investors might be looking to cash in on their gold holdings, with bouts of selling pressure to surface. Given the current levels of Treasury yields and the dollar strength, gold is still trading below what we deem as fair and we remain bullish on the precious metal.”
Spot gold was down 0.4% at $1,622.14 an ounce at 10:32 a.m. in London after gaining earlier. Prices jumped 8.6% last week and are on course for a sixth quarterly advance. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index added 0.5%, also set for a quarterly gain.
The spread between London and New York gold prices stood at about $30 an ounce on Monday, compared with more than $60 last week. Open interest in April Comex futures continued to decline on Friday, while open interest for the June contract picked up. Money managers cut their short position in gold by 78% in the week ended Tuesday, the most in government records going back more than a decade.
Other major precious metals also declined, with silver losing 2.4% following its biggest weekly gain since 2008 amid massive inflows into exchange traded funds backed by the metal. Total holdings in silver ETFs hit record levels on Friday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, amid tightness in the physical market.
(By Ranjeetha Pakiam and Elena Mazneva)
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