CHARTS: The coming critical minerals trade war is BRICS short of a load
"While a large number of countries around the world continue to talk about securing raw material supply, China is actually doing something about it."
Aluminum smelters in China’s southwestern Yunnan province have started to ramp up production as curbs on power usage are relaxed after a recent recovery in hydropower output, an analyst who visited the province last week told Reuters.
The aluminum market has been watching weather forecasts in Yunnan, China’s fourth-largest producing region for electrolytic aluminum, where reduced hydropower generation meant idled production capacity for many months.
Hydropower accounts for about 70% of total power supply in the province, which has about 5.25 million metric tons of aluminum-making capacity.
“Most aluminium smelters in Yunnan are actively ramping up their production,” said Li Lin, aluminum director at Chinese consultancy Aize, estimating that as much as 2.35 million metric tons of capacity would gradually come back online.
Analysts had previously expected between 1 and 1.3 million tons of production to resume in the Yunnan region during the summer months.
Restarting aluminum production is costly but Yunnan smelters benefit from relatively cheap hydropower energy, and their production costs, according to Li’s estimate, are nearly 4,000 yuan ($552) lower than the June price of a metric ton of aluminum.
Benchmark aluminum prices are down 10% so far this year to $2,149 per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange. The August contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange gained 0.7% to 18,120 yuan on Monday.
Macquarie analysts expect Yunnan to gradually resume 50% of its total curtailed capacity in June-August.
Higher supplies will increase inventories in China in coming weeks, according to traders, and may pressure regional prices for the metal used in transport, construction and packaging.
However, much depends on the stability of power supplies.
“We believe low dam (water) levels will still lead to power shortages over summer, thus limiting growth in production,” analysts at ANZ said in a note.
($1 = 7.2414 Chinese yuan renminbi)
(By Siyi Liu and Polina Devitt; Editing by David Holmes)
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