China’s 2025 steel demand to fall 1.5% on year, state research institute says
China's steel consumption in 2024 and 2025 is forecast at 863 million metric tons and 850 million tons, respectively.
It was an up and down year for commodities, but things ultimately finished in the black.
The S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) climbed 10.1% on the year – it was just enough to edge out the S&P 500, which ended 2016 with a 9.5% return.
The biggest winners on the year were base metals and the oil and gas sector.
Here’s how base metals did:
| Base Metal | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore | 37.0% | -6.2% | 6.3% | 31.1% | 81.0% |
| Zinc | 20.0% | 13.1% | -3.2% | 26.1% | 65.7% |
| Nickel | -3.1% | 13.9% | 11.9% | -5.0% | 17.3% |
| Aluminum | 3.8% | 7.2% | 1.4% | 4.0% | 17.3% |
| Copper | 0.1% | 3.9% | -0.5% | 13.1% | 17.1% |
Iron ore and zinc were the best performing commodities on the face of the planet in 2016. Iron finished up 81%, its first calendar gain in four years. Meanwhile, zinc shot up 65.7% on the year as major zinc mines shut down, and supply stockpiles dwindled.
Oil and gas also posted a major comeback in 2016:
| Energy | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natural gas | -17.0% | 53.3% | -2.7% | 28.0% | 58.5% |
| Oil (Brent) | 0.6% | 35.1% | -1.2% | 13.6% | 52.4% |
| Oil (WTI) | -3.2% | 37.3% | -2.1% | 11.4% | 44.9% |
It was a volatile year overall, but it appears that the worst of the downturn in energy prices is over.
Not all energy-related commodities could be so lucky.
Uranium continued its epic nosedive, losing -41.6% on the year. U3O8 now trades for $20.25/lb, a tiny fraction of its previous highs of over $100/lb in 2007.
| Energy Losers | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uranium | -16.0% | -7.4% | -12.0% | -14.7% | -41.6% |
| Coal | 0.5% | -9.3% | 1.3% | 0.0% | -7.7% |
Coal has also performed abysmally, at least in North America where CAPP prices finished down on the year -7.7%. We previously showed the decline of coal in three charts, and it seems that coal will likely continue to be an unpopular choice for utility companies in the U.S. and Canada.
That said, it is worth mentioning that Australian coal prices went bonkers earlier this year due to a Chinese administrative oversight.
