Tipping point for electric cars still four years away – report

A report released at an industry gathering in Shanghai on Tuesday shows significant cost reductions for batteries used in electric vehicles, but cost parity with internal combustion engines are still years away.

According to BloombergNEF, lithium-ion battery prices were priced above $1,100 per kilowatt-hour in 2010, but have now fallen to just $156/kWh. That’s a 87% reduction in real terms achieved — not just through volume growth in the EV market but also through continued penetration of high energy density cathodes.

According to the new energy research firm, by 2023, average prices will be close to $100/kWh, considered by many to be the price point at which electric vehicles reach parity with gas and diesel-powered vehicles. However, prices vary depending on which markets and vehicle segments.

James Frith, BNEF’s senior energy storage analyst and author of the report, said further cost reductions by battery manufacturers would be achieved through reduced manufacturing capex, new battery pack designs and changing supply chains:

“According to our forecasts, by 2030 the battery market will be worth $116 billion annually, and this doesn’t include investment in the supply chain. However, as cell and pack prices are falling, purchasers will get more value for their money than they do today.”