Neither does the Tesla CEO have a shortage of short sellers, and every so often long sellers get in on the action too. Bears turn bulls with gusto and bulls turn bears with alacrity.
Musk frequently muddies the waters himself, making outlandish – and sometimes ludicrous claims for his current and future vehicles. And the tweets. The tweets. The reckless tweets.
The result of which is that those those who want to make a sober assessment of the company have few places to go.
On a MWh-basis the Muskmobile is not just shaming US and European competitors, but also the 486 EV manufacturers registered in China
So how does the rubber really hit the road for Tesla?
Adamas Intelligence tracks the battery capacity (and the metals used in them) of electric vehicles sold in more than 80 countries around the world, representing more than 90% of the global EV market.
The numbers are based on electric vehicle registrations including hybrids, not sales projections, production forecasts, thumbsuck extrapolations, or crystal balling that keep so many Tesla followers busy on Twitter and elsewhere.
The latest report by Toronto-based Adamas on global EV battery deployment in passenger vehicles should make Tesla bulls’ eyes water.
Tesla is simply miles ahead of the competition.
On a MWh-basis the Muskmobile is not just shaming US and European competitors, but also the 486 – yes, four-hundred-and-eighty-six – EV manufacturers registered in China.
In March this year, Tesla deployed more battery power than its next four biggest rivals combined. That includes no.2 BYD (Build Your Dream) backed by Warren Buffett as long ago as 2008, which Tesla beat on a 2:1 basis (I’m only mentioning BYD because who’d ever thought the Sage of Omaha could be caught in the Musk reality distortion zone).
Tesla also outcelled (that’s a word now) state-owned giant BAIC’s electric car company BJEV by a factor of four, despite Beijing’s helping hand lifting annual growth rates at the unit to beyond 250%.
At 2,889 MWh the California company comes close to equalling the combined total of the scores of manufacturers – include some big names like Ford, Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen – outside the top 10.
Tesla’s outperformance also comes despite the fact that the combined MWh in the batteries of the Model X and S deployed in March declined by more than 40%.
The Model 3 had to lead the charge, increasing battery power out on the road by 773% year-over-year.
The combined MWhours in the batteries of the Model X and S deployed in March declined by more than 40%
Granted, Teslas have always had bigger batteries than competitor cars to help with fast-charging and to reduce the number one anxiety of first time EV buyers – range.
But battery sizes have been growing across different makes with the sales-weighted average capacity 55% higher in March compared to 2018, according to Adamas.
China is actively encouraging this trend, earlier this year eliminating subsidies for vehicles with a range below 250km (155mi) entirely.
March 2019 was clearly hot sales month for Tesla, but the company has had better ones.
In March 2018, Tesla employed 45% of the battery power among the top 10, a higher share than this year. And in September last year Tesla came up just short – a mere 39MWh – of outdoing the rest of the top 10 global EV manufacturers together.
6 Comments
Pericles
Oh wait, so they register VINs and that is used for analysis? Well, Jim Collins wrote “Slow Sales In China Highlight Tesla’s Demand Problem” in which he concludes that “The Model 3 does not show up on Gasgoo’s list of the top-ten selling NEVs in China in April.”
Time will tell.
Michael Ireland
Now just imagine if Tesla could produce their products as fast as the demand growth, and then imagine (gasp) if they ever produced a mainstream advertisement (like during the Super Bowl).
The reality is simply that Tesla had a massive self-induced head start, and they’ve been backed at an “insane” level by Musk’s deep pockets. If any other organization put the same “insane”passion (and finances) behind their own project (like, say, if Jeff Bezos decided to build an EV competitor), they’d already be almost a decade behind, and would have a difficult row to hoe to catch up.
I’m rooting for Tesla (I don’t own stock, but I do own a Model 3), but I’m also rooting for *real* competition. I hope Rivian blows the doors off Tesla with their amazing electric Pickup. I’d love to see LG rock the Li-Ion battery landscape with their own “gigafactory”. That’s how *real* paradigm shifts take hold.
eformx
These numbers will seem puny soon…Tesla will own the car business by the end of next year. There was a reason for purchasing Maxwell. Stay tuned.
Johnny Logic
@@robpotschka:disqus –> “T will own the car business…” They might, if Elon stops chasing Semi Trucks and Mars colonization. The real “BATTERY MWH” for EV packs is not sold in consumer cars, but rather electric buses — redo the numbers with an all-of-the-above approach and you will see Panasonic (the real supplier of “Tesla” cells) doesn’t make the top 3. They don’t sell to any eBUS guys.
Lee Ramer
Elon’s whole reason for all his companies are basically to create all the infrastructure, transport etc to set up a colony on Mars. They are just a means to an end. This is one of the reason why I like him. Money is not his goal, money is the means to get to his goal.
Not to mention the guy doesn’t have the word failure in his vocabulary. He has the will to make the way.
Tom
Certainly future belongs to China and her electric car makers leading the world with number of brands. Second is Europe leading the charge not only with the number of brands in a western economy but also in universal charging.
In US centrist world there is Tesla. Poorly made cars at sky high prices. Ranked worse in reliability then Chrysler. Of course there is not much competition in US against Tesla yet, hopefully that will chance soon. Rivian probably is not it – unless they combine with Ford – one of major stakeholders and produce F-150 EV. Ford is supposed to release something in the next 2 years – we see what is it.