In order to undertake a comprehensive risk assessment of an operating tailings facility, it is necessary to consider the modes by which failure may occur. Once the failure modes are identified, you may estimate the probability of failure for each mode, establish the potential consequences and hence quantify the risk.
We propose the following as the primary modes of failure giving rise to risk in tailings facilities constructed primarily of the tailings by upstream, centerline, or downstream methods:
Let us consider each in turn.
The location of the pool and the freeboard are the key factors that may lead to failure. If the pool level rises above the crest of the outer slope, waste may induce erosion and ultimately incise a gully. The rest of the pool and a good deal of the tailings may follow.
If the pool elevation stays below the perimeter crest, water seeping from the pool down and through the tailings may give rise to seepage conditions that could induce malfunction and/or failure. If there are no drains, seepage could proceed to the outer slope and seep out at the surface or the slope. If the seepage rate is high, the result could be piping of the sandy tailings. This could cause the development of concentrated flow pipes through which pool water flows, soon to be followed by fluid tailings.
If seepage is slow, the result may be a mere nuisance: wet and soft spots on the outer face with some sloughing of the outer face of soil or tailings.
If there are drains, seepage may remain within the embankment. The primary factors controlling the flow net that develops include:
This is not the place to expound on sketching of flow nets; suffice it to say that flow nets should be draw (by hand or with computer codes) as part of any comprehensive evaluation of the risk of failure of a tailings facility. For the flow net ultimately controls the pore pressures in the soil and this is a major factor is the overall stability of the outer slope. The strength of the soil is the other major factor controlling stability.
Slope failure geometry depends on the following:
A penstock from the pool through the tailings outer slope may be a cause of failure. One or more of the following may induce malfunction of total failure:
The failure of the Bafokeng slimes dam in 1974 in South Africa has been much debated. There is no consensus on the ultimate cause of failure. Possible causes include the following:
This detailed examination of causes of failure, hence risk associated with tailings facilities that have an outer slope constructed primarily of tailings, establishes the following: