Already running at a loss or struggling to stay in the black, most thermal coal mines in Australia's Queensland are now facing additional challenges as exports drop and major projects wind back.
Given Chinese officials' penchant for painting rosy economic pictures, it is something of a big deal when a state-backed institution such as the China Iron and Steel Association makes such a bearish call.
Rio Tinto would have to build its own power plant and delay commercial production if the two nations cannot come to a deal during long-running power negotiations.