Asia Gold-Price dip perks up demand ahead of festive, wedding seasons

An $85 billion expansion of the iron ore industry in Australia will not depress the price of the crucial steelmaking ingredient because the major producers will simply curtail their outputs. Martin Place Securities head of research Greg Burns told AAP the current wave of Australia-wide expansions that could effectively double current capacity of 465Mt to one billion tonnes by December 2016 will not have an upward effect on prices because the major producers will simply pull back on production to tighten up supply. Nor will some of the planned projects get off the ground, he predicts. Sky News reports:

The Mongolian government is discussing possible changes to a 2009 investment agreement for the massive Oyu Tolgoi copper-gold deposit, media reports quoted Mongolia's finance minister, S. Bayartsogt, as saying Tuesday. The 2009 deal gave a 66 percent stake in the multibillion-dollar Oyu Tolgoi project in Mongolia's South Gobi region to the Canadian miner Ivanhoe Mines (Toronto: IVN.TO - news) , in which mining giant Rio Tinto now owns a 48.5 percent stake. The government has the remaining 34 percent stake.

Diamond producer De Beers expects global demand growth for rough diamonds to set a new record this year on the exceptionally strong performance of its key US market and robust demand in China and India, the head of the company’s distribution arm said. Despite global volatility and concerns that the global economy is sliding towards another financial crisis, demand for diamonds was unlikely to be badly impacted because of its safe-haven appeal, Diamond Trading Co (DTC) Chief Executive Varda Shine told Reuters in an interview on Monday.

The Indian state of Goa is looking to technology as a way to prevent the illegal transport of iron ore. The Times of India reports that the Goa government is examining the possibility of installing radio frequency identification (RFID) tags on mining trucks to track the vehicle's movement carrying iron ore, as a part of the measures to curb transportation of illegal iron ore in the state.

The Hindu Business Line reports disproportionate price increases of fertilizers are clearly playing out, with sales of di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) falling 21.6% and muriate of potash (MOP) plunging 58% during the kharif (monsoon) planting season. The more than 50 million small farmers in India that depend on the soil nutrient have also had to contend with a weak rupee that caused domestic MOP prices to rise by as much as 91%. India imports some 6 million tonnes of potash a year with current pricing around the $500/tonne level. Chinese and Indian consumption drove the potash price from $100/tonne in 2004 to almost $900/tonne in the run up to the 2008 recession when the boom went bust and prices rapidly fell back to $350/tonne.

New economic numbers from India, the latest forecasts for the country's voracious appetite for gold, iron ore and in particular coal and its plans for a sovereign wealth fund to look at mining deals abroad mean that the GVK-Rinehart tie-up could be the first of many.

India infrastructure giant GVK on Saturday said it would pay $1.3 billion for Australia's Hancock Prospecting coal, rail and port projects and spend a further $10 billion developing them as it lines up energy supplies for upcoming power plants. Hancock's owner and richest woman in the world, Georgina Hope Rinehart will join GVK Power's board and retain a 21% stake in the mines. Rinehart, 57, is predicted to become the world’s richest person as the coal projects and Hancock's massive 100%-owned iron ore mines start producing by 2014 and earn her annual profits of as much as $10 billion. The so-called queen of iron ore who inherited a debt-ridden mining company from her father 20 years ago had already doubled her wealth from 2010 before Saturday's deal.

Both gold and silver gained on the bullion market on Saturday as bargain hunters returned to the market. While gold surged by Rs 420 to Rs 28,160 per 10 grams, silver went up by Rs 1,100 to Rs 64,400 per kg. Trading sentiment in Mumbai improved after gold rose the most in a week on Friday in New York. However, many analysts say the gold price could continue to weaken into next week possibly going as low as $1,700/oz as indicated by technical chart patterns that have turned bearish, investors turning to riskier assets like shares, the dollar gains further and concerted efforts to shore up Europe's banks may begin to show fruit. Volatility in the gold market is increasing and the gap between gold’s highs and lows this year, have reached more than $600, the largest since the 1960s.

The China Post reports Mongolia's National Security Council has rejected a deal struck with foreign firms to develop the western block of Tavan Tolgoi in the South Gobi desert, the world’s largest deposit of high-quality coking coal used in steelmaking. Metallurgical coal has been trading at record levels of $330/tonne this year and the news is a blow to US mining giant Peabody Energy, China's Shenhua and a Russian-Mongolian consortium that were announced as winners in July. At the time the losing bidders from Brazil, India and South Korea were smarting and Japan went so far as to call the bidding process 'extremely regrettable'. Mongolia was hoping to privatize its Erdenes Tavan Tolgoi coal-mining company which controls the remainder of the 6 billion tonne resource for $3 billion next year.