Hedge funds’ bullish bets on gold jump to four-year high
Hedge funds and other large speculators boosted their net-long position in gold.
On Wednesday, gold dropped to the lowest level since March 2010 as negative sentiment overwhelms the sector and analysts predict a return to triple digits for the metal.
Futures contracts in New York with August delivery dates were priced as low as $1,087.10 an ounce down more than $15 or over 1% from yesterday’s close.
It’s the tenth straight day of losses and the 6% decline over the period is the worst losing streak for gold since September 1996 when gold was worth around $380 an ounce.
Last week large gold futures investors such as hedge funds slashed long positions – bets on a rising price – to the lowest since 2006 when the Commodity Futures Trading Commission first started to collect the data.
At the same time speculators’ short positions – bets that gold could be bought cheaper in the future – are at record highs.
George Gero, a precious metals strategist at RBC Capital Markets, lays some of the blame for gold’s gap down on speculators in an interview on CNBC “Futures Now”:
“With all the bears in the woods, everybody [being] bearish is probably the most enticing reason to start to pick at the market”
Gero said Monday’s 2.2 percent selloff in gold was sparked by one large trade, rather than any sea change in the fundamentals.
“Somebody had to make the decision to be out of the market with that size trade, which distorted the markets,” he said. “We will be going back in the next few months to basics.”
Speaking ahead of Wednesday’s weaker close Gero admitted he “would have to be worried if gold stayed below $1,100”.
Gero has a price target of $1,230 an ounce by the end of the year, a 13% improvement from today’s level.
