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Tintaya concentrator Peru. Source: Glencore
Global copper production capacity at mine level through 2018 is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 6% to reach 27.4 million tonnes (mt) a year in 2018, according to a new report by the International Copper Study Group.
In its bi-annual directory of copper mines and plants, the Lisbon-based research group said concentrate output will represent more than 80% of the expansion with production jumping by 4.8mt to 21.7mt in 2018.
More than 900,000t of solvent-extraction/electrowinning capacity will be added over the same period to reach 5.7mt capacity.
Compared with ICSG’s previous estimate published in January, anticipated annual mine production capacity for 2017 and 2018 was revised down slightly by 330,000t and 140,000t, respectively, owing mainly to continued delays for many projects.
“Peru is projected to account for 26% of the additional capacity from new mine projects and expansions through 2018, followed by Zambia, Mexico, Mongolia, China and the Democratic Republic of the Congo,” the ICSG said. “Together these six countries will represent 66% of the world growth.”
Projects are also being planned in countries that currently do not mine copper, including Afghanistan, Ecuador, Ethiopia, Fiji, Greece, Israel, Panama, Sudan and Thailand.
“By 2018, total expected copper production capacity from projects starting in these new copper mining countries could reach 150,000t/year, and capacity could continue to increase well above 1mt/year if projects planned beyond 2018 in these countries are developed,” ICSG analysts said.
Concurrently, production from countries that started mining copper in the last decade is expected to increase to 550,000t/year by 2018 from only 4,000t/year in 2003.
Annual copper smelter capacity growth is forecast to lag behind mine output expansion, growing an average 3.1%/year to reach 22.5mt/year in 2018, an increase of 2.6mt or 13.1% from 2014.
“China is continuing to expand its smelting capacity and will account for 60% of the expected world growth through 2018,” ICSG said. “China’s copper smelting capacity increased by around 4.4mt/year in the 2000-2014 period and is expected to increase by a further 1.6mt/year by 2018.
ICSG tabulations indicate that world copper refinery capacity will reach 30.2mt/year in 2018, an increase of 2.9mt/year or 10.6% from 2014.
10 Comments
Pat Wood
ICSG’s article is pure garbage.
Max
I agree this article is pure garbage, some of the countries that are mentioned have not even approved the mines, let alone started construction? Thailand? Yeah Right? Fiji? What mine/deposit is that?
timH
Fiji is still in Pre-Feas (Newcrest) but Thailand is operational (Pan).
Max
PanAust commenced a trade sale process for the
Puthep Copper Project in conjunction with its joint venture partner, Padaeng
Industry Public Company Limited during the first half of 2011. With no plans to
develop the asset and no purchaser emerging from the sales process, the Company
recognised an impairment provision of the total investment in Puthep as at 31
December 2013.
Gary
Not to worry, next week there will be an article in regards to a “feared” shortage of copper in the market in the coming years, followed another similar to this one, the week after
Merv Ritchie
The obvious question here, along with the associated comments regarding this production (supply) analysis is; What will happen to the valuation of stocks in Canada’s (ie: BC’s Imperial Metals Red Chris Operation) if their is an abundance of copper concentrate? Presently the price of gold (the other major commodity of Red Chris) is below the break even point. As this mine has already published materials stating they operate on a shoe string budget; buying used equipment and cutting all conceivable corners to maintain financial sustainability, this type of news must make promoters of this “junk” operation shudder. Murray Edwards is throwing a whole heck of a lot of good money after bad.
Mike Failla
The media is infected with bias as is the establishment press. It shows up in articles like this. Don’t like this articles? check the next one and the one after that. Accuracy counts, “yellow journalism” Not so much.
Franklinguven
The metric they are looking at is capacity, not production.
Mark Harder
Exaggeration is a characteristic of Mining.com’s reporting that we need to be aware of. However, the basic and qualitative reports are probably accurate, relatively speaking. I think we can trust that China is buying or at least attempting to buy into new properties in the nations mentioned. I know, for one, that Peru contains large polymetallic assets that remain untapped because of quite challenging transportation requirements. China has proven itself willing to tackle just such challenges in other undeveloped nations (Thailand comes to mind.). However, Zambia, Mongolia and the DRC are unpredictable. Is this why mining corps. in Europe, USA, Canada, etc. are so sluggish when it comes to exploiting new opportunities?
Zulugroove
Another doom & gloom story in MINING.com, I hope all this new copper concentrate has priced in the terrible price,at the moment..wonder how they can turn profit? I just don’t buy the reliability of the story.