Platinum to trade above $1,900 despite another gross surplus in 2011 – GFMS

GFMS, in its recently-published “Platinum & Palladium Survey 2011”, is forecasting that platinum will sustain a gross surplus in 2011 of a similar magnitude to that of 2010.  Mine production is expected to increase modestly this year, and while GFMS describes the situation in South Africa as “challenging”, including risks surrounding this year’s wage negotiations, the prospect of a repetition of the major disruptions of 2007 and 2008 is relatively low.  The prospect of relatively buoyant prices also underpins increased supply from recycling and GFMS doubts that fabrication demand this year and keep pace with supply, let alone exceed it.