Outlook for copper murky at best

Copper prices fell on Wednesday after China raised interest rates and Portugal’s debt joined the junk ranks but the longer term outlook for the metal remains murky.

Arguments on both sides make sense: Bulls point to labour unrest at Freeport and Codelco and the vagueries of weather while the more bearish highlight Japanese smelter outages and Chinese destocking.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange closed at $9,521 a tonne on Wednesday, from a close at $9,540 a tonne on Tuesday after hitting two-months highs of $9,565 intra-day.

Reuters reports how the Freeport strike and threatened labour action at Codelco highlight fragile copper supply:

Freeport’s Grasberg mine holds the world’s biggest gold reserves and is one of the largest copper producers, and the strike, which was in its third day, highlights the rising labour costs for businesses in booming emerging markets.

Workers at Codelco in Chile, the world’s top copper producer, are set to strike for 24 hours next Monday to protest against an overhaul of the country’s giant state mining company.

The Financial Post argues other factors could have a bigger impact on the copper price:

Chinese de-stocking is the single most important dynamic in the refined copper market. The country’s imports slumped in the first part of this year.

The bulls are adamant that they will recover in the second part.