Column: Electric dreams turn into a nightmare for battery metals
A sector that was once racing to build new supply has been closing mines and deferring projects as low prices bite into the cost curve.
A new report by IDTechEx forecasts the market for non-lithium battery chemistries in stationary storage to grow at a CAGR of 61% between 2022-2032.
According to the market analyst, while li-ion has been the dominant — non-pumped-hydro — storage technology over the past five years, particularly when it comes to longer duration energy storage, cheaper systems are required to provide storage economically without needing to access shorter duration, higher-value revenue streams such as from frequency regulation or peak shaving.
The report points out that such a need for cheaper systems is one of the main drivers behind the development of battery chemistries utilizing zinc, sodium, and iron as well as flow battery designs that are more easily scaled.
“By 2025, IDTechEx forecast non-lithium chemistries, including sodium-sulphur, redox-flow batteries, secondary Zn-based chemistries, and Na-ion, to account for over 10% of the stationary storage market by GWh (excluding pumped-hydro),” the report reads.
The firm’s experts believe that, however, it is not just alternatives to lithium that will see a diversification of technology, but li-ion technology itself.
In their view, the rising number of start-ups working on commercializing silicon and lithium-metal technology, often in conjunction with solid-state electrolytes, could finally shift demand away from graphite for battery anodes, particularly as issues of energy density and longevity are being addressed.
“IDTechEx forecast that demand for silicon anode material will grow at a CAGR of 45.2% from 2022-2032,” the report reads.
When it comes to cathode technology, the market researcher estimates that OEMs’ desire to shift away from cobalt and nickel stems from the possibility of supply bottlenecks for these critical materials. This means that lithium-iron-phosphate or LFP solutions are likely to recapture market share and expand into new territories, as are lithium-manganese-iron-phosphate or LMFP and lithium-nickel-manganese-oxide (LNMO) chemistries.
“To date, li-ion batteries have been the go-to technology for vehicle electrification and new stationary energy storage systems. However, the supply chain for li-ion production is coming under increasing scrutiny with bottlenecks feasible during the second half of the 2020s, creating a potential opportunity for alternative battery chemistries not reliant on lithium, cobalt, or nickel,” the dossier states.
