Column: Electric dreams turn into a nightmare for battery metals
A sector that was once racing to build new supply has been closing mines and deferring projects as low prices bite into the cost curve.
Nickel prices reached their lowest point in over two and a half years on Thursday due to persistent worries about oversupply putting pressure on the market.
Three-month nickel on the London Metal Exchange fell 0.9% to $16,280 per metric ton, its lowest since April 2021, before rebounding to $16,405 as of 08:50 GMT, still a decline of 0.2%.
The most-traded December nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 3.2% at 127,720 yuan ($17,711.58) a ton.
[Click here for an interactive chart of nickel prices]
The global nickel market had a surplus of 23,900 metric tons in September, up from a surplus of 14,200 tons in the same month of last year, according to the International Nickel Study Group.
That compares with a surplus of 15,300 metric tons in August 2023.
During the first nine months of 2023, there was a surplus of 155,000 tons versus a surplus of 60,500 tons in the same period of last year, the data showed.
| Sept. 2023 | Sept. 2022 | August 2023 | YTD 2023 | YTD 2022 | |
| Mine production | 337.6 | 298.5 | 337.6 | 2,732.8 | 2,368.1 |
| Refined production | 290.9 | 266.3 | 289.8 | 2,457.1 | 2,234.2 |
| Refined usage | 267.0 | 252.1 | 274.5 | 2,302.1 | 2,173.7 |
| Balance | 23.9 | 14.2 | 15.3 | 155.0 | 60.5 |
The global outlook for primary nickel production anticipates a 10.2% increase in 2022, building on the 5.1% growth observed in 2021 and the substantial 17.3% surge in 2022, as mentioned by the International Nickel Study Group director, Francisco Pinto, in a recent article for Stainless Steel World.
The surge in output is primarily attributed to Indonesia. Notably, China is poised to expand its production, particularly in nickel sulfate, rebounding from declines in 2020 and 2021.
The combined production of nickel pig iron from Indonesia and China surpassed 1.5 million tons in 2022, with expectations of a further 7% increase in 2023.
(With files from Reuters)
