Based on a study looking at five major solar markets – Germany, Italy, France, Spain and Britain – the Brussels-based European Photovoltaic Industry Association, the biggest of its kind, said competitiveness with conventional forms of energy such as coal could be reached by 2020, but in certain markets it could take just two or three years.
The report notes the output of producers more than doubled in 2010, reaching a world-wide production volume of 23.5 gigawatts of photovoltaic modules. This is a more than 500-fold growth since 1990 and the pace of growth is not expected to slow. Predictions are for investments in PV technology to double from €35-40 billion in 2010 to over €70 billion in 2015. Governments have also been cutting back on subsidies for the industry to ensure a speedier reduction in costs.
Reuters quotes the EPIA report: “The cost of PV electricity generation in Europe could decrease from a range of 0.16-0.35 euros ($0.23-0.50) per kilowatt hour (kWh) in 2010 to a range of 0.08-0.18 euros per kWh in 2020 depending on system size and irradiance level.” This compares, for instance, with generation costs of about 0.9 euros for coal in Germany in 2010, according to data from the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
The New York Times reported last week the bankruptcies of three American solar power companies in the last month, including Solyndra of California, the recipient of more than $500 million in government help, have left China’s industry with a dominant sales position — almost three-fifths of the world’s production capacity — and rapidly declining costs.