Odds against oil sands projects rapidly stacking up
Recent developments are rapidly stacking the odds against Alberta oil sands: the oil price has fallen 20% in one month, the gap between US crude and world prices hit a record on Wednesday above $24, the premium syncrude enjoyed in recent months is melting away and Canadian heavy oil's discount to US crude has widened to $15.
The question now is how many of the $100 billion of oil sands projects in various stages of development will be completed or run at a profit when Canadian crude only attracts $60-$70 a barrel and could go lower. Sky-rocketing labour and equipment costs and a rising loonie could well turn out to be the proverbial last straw.