Column: Electric dreams turn into a nightmare for battery metals
A sector that was once racing to build new supply has been closing mines and deferring projects as low prices bite into the cost curve.
A report by Roskill states that, globally, lithium demand growth is forecast to remain strong at over 19.7%py to 2030.
According to the market researcher, this demand is being driven by the manufacture of Li-ion batteries for use in automotive and energy storage system batteries, supplemented by the use of Li-ion batteries in other applications and more industrial uses of lithium products.
“Automotive batteries alone are forecast to see demand growth in excess of 28%py to 2030, accounting for over 75% of total lithium demand by 2030 and heavily influencing the types of lithium compounds required by the market,” the report states.
Demand is being driven by the manufacture of Li-ion batteries for use in automotive and energy storage system batteries
According to Roskill, in the short-term, continued strong demand growth is expected to form a tight market by the mid-2020s. This state of affairs is expected to support lithium prices and incentivize the commissioning of new lithium production.
“Despite the commissioning of new production, expansions at existing producers and increasing volume of lithium from secondary sources expected over the coming decade, demand growth is forecast to outpace supply increases, and further investment in lithium production will be required throughout the supply chain,” the document reads.
In the firm’s view, miners ought to keep these projections in mind as they weather the current conditions in which prices have subsided and many of them – in both the refined lithium products and lithium mineral concentrates spheres – have been forced to become more cost-efficient or face closure.
