Column: Electric dreams turn into a nightmare for battery metals
A sector that was once racing to build new supply has been closing mines and deferring projects as low prices bite into the cost curve.
A new report by Roskill finds that lithium-ion battery demand is expected to increase more than ten-fold by 2029, reaching in excess of 1,800GWh capacity.
“The pipeline capacity of battery gigafactories is reported by Roskill to exceed 2,000GWh in 2029, at over 145 facilities globally,” the report reads. “Driven by demand from the automotive and energy storage markets, NCM/NCA type cathode materials are expected to remain dominant, though other cathode types will take market share in niche environments or applications.”
In 2019, the Li-ion battery capacity reached 180GWh, driven by strong demand growth from the automotive industry
According to the market analyst, even though Li-ion cells are expected to maintain their dominant position through the late 2020s, they could see increasing competition from other battery technologies.
The prediction is based on the fact that, in recent years, carmakers have started to switch to high-Ni cathodes, with an increasing number of battery producers now reporting to provide NCM811 and NCM721 cells for commercial applications.
In 2019, the automotive industry accounted for 60% of the Li-ion battery demand.
But starting in 2020 and up to 2029, Roskill expects silicon-carbon and lithium-titanate anodes to claim greater market share.
The analyst also forecasts that the transition to solid-state battery technologies is the ‘next-step’ for the industry.
Despite the interest in newer solutions, Roskill’s document states there has also been a resurgence in lithium-iron-phosphate battery technologies by major cathode and cell manufacturers as reducing manufacturing costs has also become critical.
“While cathode materials form the largest portion of total battery pack production costs, at ~24% in 2019, developments in anode, electrolyte and separator materials are also working to maximize battery performance whilst maintaining suitable safety, cost and durability standards,” Roskill reports.
