No Keystone XL means Canadian crude will stay dirt cheap

Caving to pressure from environmental groups, the Obama administration on Wednesday rejected the $7 billion-plus Keystone XL pipeline which would have carried 700,000 barrels of crude oil a day from the Alberta oil sands to refineries along the US Gulf coast.

Over many months of controversy, opposition to Keystone XL project become so rancorous that if Barack Obama would have approved the pipeline now he would have been starting his re-election campaign with little left of his traditional support base. The president has been under immense pressure about Keystone as environmental activists, political donors and the Hollywood left accuse him of being too cozy with the oil industry.

In a sop to business interests, the administration said on Wednesday it will let TransCanada submit a new application for an alternate route, which would add many months of new planning to the often-delayed project.  In November, TransCanada agreed to change the pipeline route in Nebraska, adding roughly 65 kilometres of pipeline and an additional  pumping station.  Throughout the approval process TransCanada officials appeared to have been caught off guard by the vociferous protests the pipeline elicited. A similar pipeline three years ago was approved with little opposition.

Canadian heavy oil (the Western Canada Select contract) – exported only to the US due to a paucity of pipelines – sold for $21.20 less than US crude on Wednesday. The price Canadian producers receive  has been sinking steadily since September when the price differential was only around $8.

Even Syncrude, a light oil made from oil sands after undergoing an expensive upgrading process, now sells at a discount to WTI of to $5.20 a barrel – down from a premium of $18 six months ago during an upgrader outage.

The US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate on Nymex, in turn traded at a discount of just under $11 to the international North Sea Brent benchmark that settled at $111.50 on Wednesday, meaning oil sands producers now sell some of the cheapest fuel on the planet. Canada exports two million barrels of crude to the US per day of which 1.5m come from oil sands.

Apart from environmental campaigners and clean energy proponents, other players may also be rejoicing the death of Keystone XL: MINING.com has argued in the past that if Keystone XL is built the biggest losers will not be the Greens, it will be Big Oil: Keystone XL will bring Canadian crude, which sells at a steep discount, more in line with global prices. At the same time a huge slice of the record profits of Chevron, ConocoPhillips and Exxon Mobil will we wiped out. Here’s why.

MINING.com has also argued that the lack of pipelines may not be the greatest threat to the oil sands:

Even if both TransCanada’s (NYSE:TRP) Keystone XL and Enbridge’s (TSE:ENB) Northern Gateway pipelines are built, bitumen is expensive to extract, upgrade and refine and cannot compete with the many new shale oil plays – particularly in the Bakken oil basin – which have pushed US production to its highest level in a decade and could see it become the planet’s number one producer of crude. Read more…

The Canadian government and Alberta oil industry are now turning their attention to the Northern Gateway pipeline project that would stretch for 1,170km from Brudenheim in Alberta to a new marine terminal in northern British Columbia to serve Asian markets. But the $5.5 billion project which has significant Chinese backing, is already almost a year behind schedule and would not go into operation until 2017 at the soonest.

Even this schedule is optimistic: started last week, an unprecedented 4,000-plus people – the vast majority environmental activists – began speaking for a collective 650 hours at public hearings. Read more about Gateway and its most formidable opponent…

 

 

Image by rook76 / Shutterstock.com

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