Which US presidential candidate does gold prefer?
Gold loves chaos and should be hitting new highs, especially with inflation coming down and with it, two rate cuts likely before year’s end.
Predictions for the gold price in 2014 by investment and bullion banks don’t vary much in that the majority predict a decline this year.
There are bulls – none of them anywhere near raging – like Germany’s Commerzbank and Scotia Mocatta which predict a return to $1,400 an ounce.
Barclays is somewhere in the middle with a move to $1,350 in the first half but for gold to be back to around $1,270 by end-2014. Merrill Lynch sees the opposite price movement with $1,350 hit at the end of the year.
Top bear, along with Goldman Sachs, which is due to bring out revised forecasts soon from its November prediction of a slide below $1,100, is Switzerland’s UBS Wealth Management which sees the yellow metal weakening throughout 2014 to hit $1,150.
FX Street reports at least one prominent US investment bank has turned more bullish on gold. JP Morgan now predicts an improvement from today’s levels, albeit a still modest $40-plus rise:
“We expect that the trade policy blocking Indian gold imports will weaken somewhat and we also anticipate that outflows from gold ETFs will stabilize in the coming year, and begin to rise in 2H2014.”
“A slower pace of gold mine growth in 2014 and 2015 is likely as lower prices feed into project delays and lower capex.”
“We also still believe that central banks will be net buyers of gold in 2014 and 2015. All this should see prices stabilize and move modestly higher to round $1285/oz by the end of the year.”
